This era is marked by complexity, rising fragmentation, and prolonged conflict with regional spillover that has deliberate and far-reaching ramifications. The paradigm shift in technology from AI to quantum computing is driving exponential innovation and reshaping how we live, work, and create new growth engines.
And the world is caught amid heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty. According to the World Economic Forum, global growth is projected at 3.1% for 2026. The global outlook depends not only on the ability of economies to confront short-term risks but also on their preparedness to harness innovation to boost productivity over the long term. Within this context, businesses, governments, and civil society must address global risks.
The WEF Global Risks 2026 study defines "global risk" as a potential event or circumstance that, if it occurs, could cause a significant negative impact on several countries or industries within the next 10 years, with variations in GDP, population, and resources.
The rise of geopolitical and geoeconomic confrontation is at the top of the list of risks, followed by state-based armed conflict; the fragmentation of the global economy and trade will impact economic growth and prosperity. Fragmentation is no longer just a risk but a growing reality, with the potential for reduced trade and global output, with emerging economies being hit hardest.
Global trade is like a wave; it moves all the boats, and when it begins to shrink, it affects every economy, especially developing economies, increasing foreign exchange costs, import taxes, tariffs, and domestic and societal pressures. In trade conflicts, people are more concerned about who will win and who will lose. However, that is inconsequential, as in the end, everyone loses because trade opportunities have diminished.
Earlier, the world was driven by efficiency, opportunities, and business scaling, but today, the drivers of trade policy are national security and geopolitical dynamics. Trading systems are fragmented and increasingly politicised; as a result, linear pyramid global supply chains are becoming strategically dangerous and evolving into diamond-shaped structures. At the top, critical capabilities are extremely scarce, and a broader network is decentralised and local to mitigate disruptions and enhance resilience.
Technological risks are multiplying with the rise of misinformation, disinformation, and cybersecurity threats. AI is a foundational and transformative technology that builds on cloud, mobile, and internet technologies.
Advancements in quantum computing could speed up climate and weather modeling, as well as drug discovery. Still, they also risk becoming another facet of strategic rivalry, economic bifurcation, and political polarisation. The technological infrastructure to support AI is becoming increasingly strained, as AI investment could outstrip available capital, creating uncertainty. Technological risks are also anticipated to worsen over the next decade, with adverse outcomes from AI technologies and frontier technologies.
Over the next ten years, the main global risks are likely to include geo-economic confrontation, intensified state-level armed conflict, persistent economic instability, widespread misinformation and disinformation, cybersecurity threats, extreme weather events, natural resource shortage, and ecosystem disruption.
According to the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report, the outlook for the next two years is turbulent or stormy. The short-term risks are geopolitical, and the long-term risks are environmental.
With governments using a broader range of economic instruments, often to advance national security objectives, geoeconomic conflict is expected to intensify. There is mounting evidence that the rules-based international order is under strain, and multilateralism is facing ever greater challenges from unilateral actions and geopolitical rivalry.
There will be new threats to the rule of law and social stability as a result of local division, global rivalry, and the resulting incapacity to address common issues. There is a set of underlying structural conditions that will influence the global risk landscape, including technological acceleration, geostrategic shifts, climate change, and demographic bifurcation, which shape how risk evolves. While all these forces have global ramifications, some can unfold into more multi-dimensional trajectories, amplifying uncertainty about the future impacts.
The future is not a straight, fixed path but offers a range of possibilities, each of which depends on the decisions of the global community. By anticipating, we make our world better prepared to handle tomorrow's challenges.
We can create partnerships, institutions, and policies better equipped to address future challenges and to actively steer outcomes toward greater security, equality, and resilience by anticipating geoeconomic tensions, conflict, technological upheaval, and environmental stress.
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