The signals coming out of the region point to something bigger than the familiar cycle of strikes and counterstrikes with Iran. This time, the objective seems to go beyond disabling nuclear facilities or missile sites.
What’s being contemplated is a fundamental change in the political order itself — a far more ambitious and risky undertaking. That kind of goal requires boots on the ground, whether foreign or domestic and a population at least partially receptive to change. Iran’s internal pressures may create openings, but no one should expect Tehran to fold quietly. Resistance is certain and the conflict would likely be drawn-out, destructive and spill well beyond Iran’s borders.
The energy dimension is where the global impact becomes immediate. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most sensitive chokepoint, with nearly a fifth of global oil trade flowing through it. Any disruption there would send shockwaves through markets overnight. Risk premiums would spike, crude prices would surge and volatility would dominate trading. The uncertainty alone — even before actual supply interruptions — would rattle investors and push major consumers to scramble for alternatives.
The longer such a confrontation drags on, the heavier the strain on energy flows. Supply chains could be redrawn, strategic reserves tapped and non-Gulf producers leaned on more heavily. At the same time, Gulf states would face the dual burden of keeping oil moving while protecting infrastructure and shipping lanes. The risk of spillover — through proxy attacks, cyber strikes, or economic destabilisation — would test regional resilience and international alliances alike. In short, a war of this scale with Iran would not remain a regional affair. It would quickly evolve into a global crisis, reshaping energy security and geopolitical alignments.
Markets would react instantly with price spikes and heightened risk premiums, but the real question is whether the conflict could be contained before it becomes a grinding war that undermines the stability of global energy supplies. For policymakers, the challenge is clear: prepare for immediate shocks, shore up resilience and think beyond the short-term volatility to the structural shifts this kind of crisis could accelerate.
Ali al Riyami
The writer is an Oman-based energy affairs expert.
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