Muscat: The Oman crude for delivery in the coming month of May traded at $153 .12 on Tuesday, an increase of 54 cents from the last trading on Tuesday.
On Monday, March 16, Oman crude oil reached an all-time high of $152.58 per barrel on the Gulf Mercantile Exchange (GME). This surpassed the previous record set only days earlier in the same month.
The average trading price for Oman Crude in May 2026 is $68.15
Factfile
March 17, 2026: Reached $152.58 per barrel, crossed the $150 mark for the first time.
March 16, 2026: Reached $147.79 per barrel, the current historical peak for the Oman Crude Oil (OQD) Marker Price.
March 13, 2026: Settled at $144.36 per barrel for May 2026 delivery, marking a significant record at that time.
July 2008: Recorded a previous long-standing all-time high of $141.27 per barrel. June 2014: Reached a multi-year peak of $107.68 per barrel before a major market downturn.
March 12, 2026: Surged to $134.75 per barrel.
March 9, 2026: Jumped to $124.68 per barrel, a $24.37 increase from the previous session.
March 6, 2026: Broke the $100 threshold for the first time in years, closing at $100.31 per barrel.
While the war has seen oil become more expensive, prices fell more than $2 a barrel after Iraqi and Kurdish authorities agreed to resume oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan port from Wednesday.
Oil prices took a breather on Wednesday after the Iraqi government and Kurdish authorities reached a deal to resume oil exports via Turkey's Ceyhan port, though the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed.
Brent crude futures dropped 2.2% to $101.09 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.3% to $93.05.
That proved to be a comfort for equity investors, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 1.6% as South Korea surged more than 4%. Japan's Nikkei also rallied 2.6%.
Norbert Rücker, Head Economics and Next Generation Research, Julius Baer, said, "The unchanged intensity of the Iran war keeps the stress levels high on energy markets. Oil is trading up above $100, and natural gas remains at EUR 50. The conflict’s dynamics are evolving, but major energy infrastructure damage remains absent. Our base case scenario is still that of a short-lived, intense energy price spike. Surplus supplies keep the economy going, though some emerging markets see fuel shortages."
The unchanged intensity of the Iran war and of the broader conflict in the Middle East keeps up the stress levels on energy markets and beyond. Oil seems more nervous than natural gas, with prices trading back up above USD 100, while natural gas remains at EUR 50. That said, there were no news over the weekend about significant energy infrastructure damage.
The conflict’s dynamics continue to evolve. Oil production seems close to maximum shut-ins, which we roughly estimate at around 10 million barrels per day – or 10% of global supplies, as alternative trade routes ramp up and some oil still finds its way past the Hormuz choke point. Safe passage by ‘Iran-friendly’ ships remains a development to watch.
With major energy infrastructure damage absent, Iran’s military threat softening, and activism towards safeguarding trade around Hormuz picking up, our base case is still that of a short-lived, intense energy price spike. We assign an unchanged probability of >60% to this scenario.
Political activism is increasing, but neither oil nor natural gas prices have climbed to exceptional and growth-damaging levels.
The broader story on energy markets until the conflict escalated was surplus supplies, and burning through this ‘winter fat’ so far absorbs the supply shock’s tremors.
The Hormuz trade impasse would need to last well beyond March to fully eradicate oil’s surplus buffer, even without accounting for the strategic storage releases.
That said, some emerging markets are experiencing fuel supply shortages due to a lack of storage or lack of diversified sourcing. Europe remains anxious, but both natural gas and power prices remain below the early 2025 spike’s levels, and far away from 2022 market conditions.
Rising overseas supplies, gas-tocoal fuel switching in Asia, eased carbon costs, and strong renewables generation keep a lid on natural gas prices and quench the pass-through from gas to power markets.
With agencies and analyst inputs.
Oman Observer is now on the WhatsApp channel. Click here
