Airlines operating in the Middle East region will require 3,020 new passenger and freight aircraft deliveries by 2040, according to the 2021 Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) launched at the Dubai Airshow 2021. This will bring the total fleet to 3,210 from a 2019 fleet baseline of 1,300 aircraft.
During this period, the fleet in the region will transition to new generation types such as the A220, A320neo family, A330neo and A350 bringing significant efficiency improvement and a corresponding reduction in carbon emissions per passenger.
Growth is driven by the forecast 2.3 per cent CAGR increase in GDP between now and 2040. Aviation and tourism will continue to be key growth sectors for the Middle East and drive GDP growth.
Airbus forecasts that air traffic in the Middle East will achieve full recovery to 2019 levels between late 2022 and mid-2024. Globally, cargo is already operating today at 9 per cent above pre-crisis levels, and in the Middle East 18 per cent.
This strong recovery is due to the region’s strategic location which is a vital economic, business and cultural connector between the East and the West. Government vision and strategic investment plans position aviation at the forefront of long-term planning in the Middle East. All of these factors will empower a return to the skies.
O&D passenger traffic in the Middle East is set to increase by a factor of 2.7 by 2040. Cargo traffic to and from the Middle East will increase by a factor of 1.8.
Today, five of the world’s largest aviation cities are in the Middle East, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi, serving more than 10000 long-haul passengers per day. Another six cities will grow past this threshold in the next twenty years including Dammam, Muscat and Kuwait City.