Davos has always been a temperature check on the global economy: not because one summit decides outcomes, but because it reveals what investors, policymakers and leaders will do next. The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, held from 19-23 January under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue”, convened 3,000 leaders amidst a world that is steadier than the headlines suggest, yet complex in how trade, technology and capital move.
Three messages stood out for the global community.
First, the world economy is proving more resilient than expected, but the margin for error is thin. The IMF’s January 2026 update projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 (and 3.3% in 2025), supported by technology investment and easing financial conditions, even as trade policy shifts and geopolitics keep risk premia high. In Davos, leaders were not celebrating a boom; they were stress-testing assumptions and hedging against downside risks.
Second, trade is growing in value, but fragmenting in structure. UNCTAD estimates global trade in goods and services may exceed $35 trillion for the first time in 2025 — about a 7% rise versus 2024 — driven by services. Yet the “how” of trade is changing: standards, data rules, security reviews and supply-chain resilience now shape market access as much as tariffs do. For firms, diversification is no longer optional; it is a board-level requirement.
Third, capital is available, but it is moving more selectively. UNCTAD reports global FDI reached about $1.4 trillion in 2024, but once conduit flows are excluded, underlying investment fell and investment in SDG-related sectors declined by 11%. Investors are rewarding scale, certainty and bankable execution. Countries that provide credible pipelines, transparent governance and reliable infrastructure will capture a bigger share of a more cautious pool.
For the Middle East, Davos 2026 reinforced a practical reality: the next decade will be shaped less by oil cycles and more by two transitions running in parallel — an energy transition and an “intelligent economy” transition. Artificial intelligence is no longer a side topic; it is becoming a primary productivity variable. IMF analysis suggests roughly 40% of global employment is exposed to AI-driven change (and around 60% in advanced economies). That translates into productivity gains and higher-value job creation — but only where skills policy, data governance and competition rules keep pace.
Oman’s relevance in this landscape is straightforward: stability, geography and a reform trajectory that is increasingly measurable.
Macroeconomic fundamentals have improved. The IMF notes Oman’s economy expanded by 1.6% in 2024 and accelerated to 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by nonhydrocarbon growth of 3.5%. Inflation remained low (0.6% in 2024; 0.9% during January-October 2025). Prudent fiscal management kept the overall balance in surplus, estimated at 0.7% of GDP in 2025, with government debt at 36.1% of GDP by September 2025. Even with softer oil prices, the current account deficit is estimated at 1.1% of GDP in 2025. These are not abstract statistics; they are the ingredients of investor confidence and lower risk premiums.
Where are the clearest opportunities?
First, logistics and “safe passage” trade. When global shipping lanes face disruption, reliable ports, customs efficiency and multimodal corridors become strategic assets. Oman can position Suhar, Al Duqm and Salalah not only as national infrastructure, but as regional risk-management tools for firms that need redundancy. The prize is not just throughput; it is higher-value services: warehousing, cold chain and trade-linked manufacturing that clusters around movement.
Second, green molecules and industrial diversification. Oman’s green hydrogen platform is moving from ambition to execution. Hydrom has allocated around 50,000 km² for green hydrogen development and outlines a project pipeline that targets roughly 1.0-1.5 million tonnes per annum by 2030, supported by tens of billions of dollars in awarded and committed investments. Hydrogen is not merely an export; it can anchor downstream industry — green ammonia, e-fuels, low-carbon metals and new chemical value chains.
Third, bankable industrial projects. Global investors are hunting for “shovel-ready” opportunities linked to the new industrial policy cycle: advanced materials, clean-tech components and resilient supply chains. Oman should target niches where it has structural advantages — competitive energy, improving logistics and the ability to deliver predictable permitting, land readiness and utility access.
Fourth, the intelligent economy. Davos made one point unmistakable: AI will reward early adopters and punish laggards. Oman’s next competitiveness leap will come from digitising trade, licensing and industrial permitting; building trusted data frameworks; and scaling applied AI in logistics, health, tourism and energy management.
What should Oman do next? Five recommendations are immediate and practical.
1.Turn projects into pipelines: publish a rolling investable national portfolio with timelines, land readiness, offtake pathways and incentives — and manage it with a delivery-unit mindset focused on execution speed.
2.Make skills the flagship infrastructure: accelerate programmes for AI, industrial maintenance, process engineering and logistics, co-designed with anchor investors.
3.Deepen trade facilitation: expand single-window services, digitise customs clearance end-to-end and institutionalise fast-track lanes for strategic investors.
4.Localise selectively: prioritise services and components that can realistically be onshored — maintenance, fabrication, EPC capacity and testing labs — before chasing full supply-chain self-sufficiency.
5.Finance the transition with confidence: use blended finance, guarantees and project preparation facilities to crowd in private capital, especially for green and logistics infrastructure.
Davos 2026 did not deliver a single announcement that changes everything. It delivered something more valuable: clarity. Growth will come to those who can execute in a fragmented world — linking stability with speed and dialogue with delivery. Oman is well placed to do exactly that.
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