STAFF REPORTER
MUSCAT, SEPT 11
The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre (NMHEWC) reviewed the current status of the El Niño phenomenon and its potential impact on the country’s weather for the period between September and May 2027 focusing on rainfall and temperatures.
The review was conducted with a view to enhance the national early warning system and boosting preparedness of national sectors to handle various potential impacts.
The centre said that the statistical models showed a correlation between El Niño and rainfall patterns associated with winter westerly troughs in the Sultanate of Oman between October and May each year. The phenomenon was linked to increased rainfall and moisture particularly in northern parts of the country. The outcomes indicate the potential to consider the El Niño phenomenon as a primary and subordinate indicator in seasonal forecasting.
Regarding the forecast for the coming months, the centre said that this weather pattern is associated with an increased possibility of significant changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, along with a higher risk of extreme weather events including heavy rains, droughts, and temperature fluctuations. The effects of this phenomenon are expected to continue throughout 2027.
Concerning rainfall, the centre said that seasonal forecasts show spatial variations in rainfall rates across the governorates of the Sultanate of Oman between October and December of this year. The country is expected to experience above-average rainfall in October and average rainfall in the remaining areas except for the coastal regions of the Arabian Sea where below-average rainfall is anticipated.
The forecast for November indicates above-average rainfall in the north and around average rainfall in the remaining areas.
In December, rainfall is expected to be around average across the Sultanate of Oman, except for the northern region which is predicted to witness above-average rainfall. Seasonal forecasts for the coming months indicate that temperatures will be above average across the Sultanate of Oman between October and December of this year.
The centre said that statistical analysis of the potential impacts of the El Niño climatic phenomenon on rainfall in Oman shows that the phenomenon has been associated with increased rainfall between September and May over the past 45 years.
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