El Nino has been appearing in the news a lot recently. Reports suggest that Oman may experience a wetter and more fertile winter between October 2026 and May 2027. So, are we happy or worried?
In a country where a few drops of rain can quickly become the main topic of every WhatsApp group, I decided to find out what all the excitement was about.
The first thing I discovered was reassuring. El Nino is not a cyclone heading towards Oman. There is no enormous weather system crossing the Pacific with Muscat programmed into its navigation system. It is a natural climate pattern that begins thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Normally, the winds push warm surface water westwards. During El Nino, those winds weaken and unusually warm water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific, changing air pressure, winds and rainfall patterns around the world.
Scientists call this natural climate cycle ENSO, short for El Nino-Southern Oscillation. El Nino is its warm phase, La Nina its cool phase, and between the two are periods known as ENSO-neutral conditions. El Nino generally appears every two to seven years and usually lasts around nine to twelve months. The name means 'the boy' in Spanish and comes from South American fishermen who noticed unusually warm coastal waters around Christmas.
The current event is attracting attention because it is expected to become very strong. The World Meteorological Organization said in September that it was firmly established and had a near-100 per cent chance of continuing through February 2027. You may also have seen the expression 'super El Nino'. It sounds as though it should arrive wearing a cape, but it is not an official WMO classification.
Scientists monitor Pacific temperatures, winds, air pressure and heat below the ocean using satellites, buoys and computer models. A warming that seems tiny when adjusting an air conditioner can matter enormously when spread across a vast ocean. The resulting atmospheric changes can influence weather thousands of kilometres away. El Nino does not travel to Oman, but its influence can.
Current indicators suggest Oman may experience a relatively wet and fertile winter from October 2026 to May 2027. Historical analyses have examined El Nino periods including 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 and found an indirect relationship with winter weather systems affecting Oman. One analysis of Omani rainfall from 1977 to 2003 also found 1997 to be the wettest year in that dataset.
This sounds promising, especially if you enjoy seeing our brown mountains suddenly turn green. But 'may' is doing quite a lot of work here. A seasonal outlook tells us what has become more likely; it is not a promise. El Nino can tilt the weather odds, but it cannot guarantee us a wet winter.
Oman's weather has several influences. The Pacific matters, but so do the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, regional pressure systems, ocean temperatures, geography and season. Another influence is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a natural pattern involving differences in sea temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean.
These temperature differences can change winds and rainfall across the region, including areas around the Arabian Sea. So now we have ENSO, El Nino, La Nina and IOD.
Different parts of Oman may also experience different conditions. The Hajar Mountains influence thunderstorms and rapid runoff, while Dhofar's Khareef is strongly connected to the Indian monsoon. We cannot assume El Nino will make the next Khareef stronger or weaker. The same caution applies to cyclones. ENSO can influence Arabian Sea cyclone activity, but ocean heat, winds and other climate systems also matter. El Nino has not booked a cyclone for us.
A wetter winter could recharge groundwater, dams and aflaj and help farms, grazing areas and vegetation. Anyone who has travelled through Oman after good rainfall knows how quickly brown can become green. The same rain, however, can turn wadis dangerous within minutes, flood roads and damage homes, farms and infrastructure.
In Oman, rain has the unusual ability to be welcomed enthusiastically and feared seriously at exactly the same time.
Weather elsewhere does not always stay elsewhere. El Nino could even affect us without additional rain. Droughts and floods elsewhere can damage crops and influence international food prices, while warmer seas can affect fisheries and marine ecosystems.
There is also climate change. El Nino is natural and existed long before modern global warming. Research using corals to reconstruct around a thousand years of Pacific climate history suggests ENSO variability has increased in recent decades. Scientists are still studying exactly how long-term warming affects El Nino, but it now operates in a warmer world, where some consequences can become more serious.
A little preparation and common sense should help. Follow Oman Meteorology and official warnings, take flood alerts seriously and never drive into a flowing wadi. And be careful with dramatic headlines and AI summaries, where probability can easily turn into prophecy.
I would certainly welcome a green winter, fuller dams, flowing aflaj and cooler days. I will keep the umbrella nearby, but I am not buying the boat yet. El Nino can change the odds. It cannot tell us whether it will rain outside my house next Tuesday.
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