MUSCAT: The price of Oman crude soared 13.7% to $80.40 per barrel on Monday, March 2, 2026 as energy markets reacted to the unfolding crisis in the Middle East, sparked by joint US-Israeli-led strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran across the region.
The $9.69 spike has been described as the largest short-term percentage jump in over a year and the most dramatic since prices last exhibited similar trends in trading earlier in 2025.
The last time Oman crude approached $80+ per barrel was in January 2025, when prices rose to about $82.22 per barrel, driven by global supply concerns linked to sanctions on Russian oil.
According to ONA, the official price of crude from Oman for May 2026 delivery settled at $80.40 per barrel, while the March average of $62.17 reflected an 8-cent month-on-month gain.
Leading Omani independent energy analyst Ali al Riyami attributed the spike to market volatility premiums. “The sharp rise is significant, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums,” he said. “While sudden jumps are not unprecedented during regional crises, the magnitude underscores the market’s acute sensitivity to conflict-driven uncertainty.”
A Reuters report, citing analysts at Goldman Sachs, estimated that oil markets are pricing in an $18-per-barrel risk premium — roughly a quarter of prevailing prices — amid concerns that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could materialise. With Brent crude futures trading at $77.57 and WTI at $71.21, the implied premium represents about 23–25% of prices if crude were to exceed $90 per barrel.
In remarks to the Observer, Al Riyami noted that oil prices are expected to stay elevated in the short term: “Prices are likely to remain under upward pressure, with volatility shaped by regional tensions. Unless stability returns quickly, the risk bias points to further gains.”
Boding well for uninterrupted flows of Omani crude to export markets is the strategic location of export terminals away from the conflict zone.
“This geographic advantage, combined with robust infrastructure, means Omani exports are expected to advance without disruption. The recent attacks were significant but did not target export facilities and therefore do not alter the outlook for continuity of supply,” the analyst noted.
Maritime authorities have reported at least two attacks on vessels off Oman since the outbreak of hostilities last Thursday. First, the Palau-flagged tanker Skylight was attacked about five nautical miles north of Khasab off the Omani coast in the Strait of Hormuz, injuring four crew members and prompting evacuation of all 20 people on board.
Later, on March 1, 2026, the crude oil tanker MKD Vyom, flying the Marshall Islands flag, was struck by an unidentified projectile off the coast of Oman, an incident confirmed by the UK Maritime Trade Operations. Although a fire broke out onboard, the crew was safely evacuated and reported unharmed, and the blaze has since been brought under control.
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