Oman has long distinguished itself in the tumultuous landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics through its consistent pursuit of diplomacy, a strategic approach focused on mediation and de-escalation rather than direct confrontation.
This diplomatic posture has become particularly crucial in recent years, as tensions between the United States and Iran have frequently threatened to erupt into wider regional conflict.
Alongside other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Oman has actively engaged in behind-the-scenes efforts to prevent such an escalation, recognising the profound and destabilising consequences a direct confrontation would have on the entire region.
The Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman, share a collective apprehension regarding the potential for chaos that a US attack on Iran or the collapse of the Islamic Republic could unleash.
Oman's role in this intricate diplomatic dance is particularly noteworthy. Oman has cultivated a reputation as a neutral and trusted mediator, a position it leverages to facilitate dialogue between otherwise adversarial parties. This ‘niche diplomacy’ involves focusing on specific, often sensitive, issues where its unique position can be most effective.
For instance, Oman has historically played a crucial role in facilitating prisoner exchanges and back-channel communications between the US and Iran, even during periods of heightened tension. Its consistent engagement with both sides has allowed it to act as a crucial conduit for messages and proposals, including those related to nuclear negotiations.
Oman has long hoped for a more comprehensive mechanism for dialogue with all states in the region. This would strengthen the security efforts of the GCC. It would reflect the fact that Iran also has a real and legitimate stake in the security of the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia has also demonstrated a pragmatic approach, recognising that regional destabilisation would severely undermine its ambitious economic reform plans, such as Vision 2030, which require a stable environment for success. Riyadh has reportedly communicated to Washington its concerns about the repercussions of a military strike and has even indicated that it would not allow the US to use its airspace for such operations, aiming to avoid being drawn into a direct conflict.
This stance reflects a broader understanding among Gulf states that while they may desire a weakened Iranian leadership, the prospect of an abrupt regime change and the ensuing chaos is far more detrimental to their own security and prosperity.
Qatar also has a vested interest in maintaining regional stability and has actively participated in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. The economic ties between Gulf states and Iran, particularly for countries like the UAE whose port of Dubai is a key trading hub, further underscore the shared desire to avert conflict.
The collective message from these Gulf nations to the US has consistently emphasised the potential for disrupted oil prices, damage to their reputations as safe havens for business and the risk of Iranian retaliation on their soil.
In essence, a profound understanding of the interconnectedness of regional security drives the diplomatic efforts of Oman and other GCC states.
They recognise that a military confrontation between the US and Iran would not only have immediate and devastating consequences, but would also create a vacuum that could be filled by more radical elements, further destabilising the region.
Their sustained engagement, often behind the scenes, represents a critical endeavour against escalation, demonstrating a commitment to dialogue and peaceful resolution even amidst profound geopolitical challenges.
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