Aircraft orders backlog estimated at 17,000: IATA

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 9.6 percent year-on-year increase in demand, while capacity increased 9.2 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 81.4% (+0.3 ppt compared to November 2024), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

“Overall, November 2025 saw continued strong demand for air travel with year-on-year growth of 5.7%. Load factors reached a new record of 83.7% for the month as airlines continued to satisfy growing passenger demand amid continuing capacity constraints stemming from challenges in the aerospace supply chain. The new year’s resolution for the manufacturing sector must be to increase production to meet the needs of its airline customers. The backlog of more than 17,000 aircraft orders that we reached in 2025 must be reduced in 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecast to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines.

The normalization of the structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity is unlikely before 2031-2034 due to irreversible losses on deliveries over the past five years and a record-high order backlog. As delivery shortfalls now total at least 5,300 aircraft, the order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, a number equal to almost 60% of the active fleet. Historically, this ratio was steady at around 30-40%. This backlog is equivalent to nearly 12 years of the current production capacity, and average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years (12.8 years for aircraft in the passenger fleet, 19.6 years for cargo aircraft, and 14.5 years for the wide-body fleet).