Investors will now be eyeing Venezuela as a once-sealed economy looks likely to reopen to global capital, creating a “rare convergence of political change, asset repricing, and reconstruction demand that is already reshaping emerging-market strategies”.
This is the assessment of the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations following Washington’s strike over the weekend which removed the President in Caracas.
Nigel Green of deVere Group says Venezuela is going to move “abruptly from the periphery of investment thinking to the centre of it”, following the removal of Nicolás Maduro and clear signals from Washington that the country’s economic reintegration is no longer theoretical.
“Markets respond when isolation gives way to access,” says Nigel Green. “Venezuela has spent years cut off from capital, expertise, and trade. The moment investors believe that wall is coming down, valuations start to reset.”
The scale of what is at stake explains the urgency. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at more than 300 billion barrels, alongside substantial deposits of gold, iron ore, bauxite, and strategic minerals.
Yet years of sanctions, chronic underinvestment, and operational collapse have left infrastructure across energy, power, transport, and industry in severe disrepair.
Oil production, which peaked at more than 3.4 million barrels a day in the late 1990s, remains well under one million barrels a day today.
Power generation is unreliable, ports are degraded, and pipelines, refineries, and housing stock require extensive rebuilding.
For investors accustomed to crowded trades in developed markets, the contrast is stark.
“This is an economy priced for failure but endowed for recovery,” Nigel Green says. “When assets have been excluded for this long, even modest improvements in governance and access can produce outsized market reactions.”
That repricing has already begun. Venezuelan sovereign and state-linked debt, long written off by global investors, has rallied sharply over the past year as expectations shift from permanent default toward restructuring and normalization.
Distressed bonds that once traded deep in the teens have moved materially higher, reflecting a reassessment of long-term recovery prospects.
“Debt markets tend to move first,” says Nigel Green. “They’re signalling that the probability of Venezuela re-entering the financial system has risen.”
He says early interest is focused on several fronts. Public market exposure to companies positioned to benefit from rising resource output is drawing attention. Private credit is emerging as a critical channel, offering financing to local firms starved of capital.
Infrastructure investment, particularly in energy, power generation, ports, and logistics, is viewed as unavoidable if production is to recover.
“The rebuilding effort will require vast sums of capital. Energy alone demands sustained investment measured in the tens and hundreds of billions over time,” notes the deVere CEO.
He cautions that risk remains elevated.
“Political stability is still being tested, legal frameworks need restoration, and security concerns cannot be dismissed.
“Investor protection, contract enforceability, and asset control will be decisive factors in determining which capital participates and at what scale
“This is not an indiscriminate opportunity. Returns will depend on structure, jurisdiction, and local insight. Investors who treat Venezuela as a headline trade will be disappointed.”
Those constraints help explain why larger institutions such as pension funds and sovereign wealth vehicles may move more slowly. Their mandates and risk thresholds require clarity that may take time to emerge.
“By contrast, hedge funds, family offices, and specialist investors are expected to already be positioning, seeking exposure before broader participation lifts prices further.
“Timing matters,” says Nigel Green. “History shows that the largest gains tend to accrue before full consensus forms.”
Beyond Venezuela itself, he says the implications extend across global energy and emerging markets. Any sustained recovery in Venezuelan output would alter crude supply dynamics, influence regional trade balances, and shift capital flows across Latin America.
“Markets price the future, not the past,” Nigel Green says. “If Venezuela succeeds in restoring production and attracting capital, the effects will be felt far beyond its borders.”
He concludes. “Venezuela’s return to investor focus underscores a wider reality that’s going to shape markets in 2026: geopolitics is once again going to be a dominant driver of capital allocation.”
Oman Observer is now on the WhatsApp channel. Click here
