It is one year since Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, the war and its latest phase continue to remain a challenge not only for the people of Ukraine, but also for the world at large.
Since the Russian war on February 24, 2022, both Russia and Ukraine have been hit with material and human losses heavily. Reports indicate while about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded, Ukraine has seen some 100,000 killed or wounded in action, and 30,000 civilians dead.
Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes, while many still inside the country are unable to access enough food, water, or electricity.
This is in addition to causing material damage to infrastructure, housing and industry amounts to many hundreds of billions of dollars. The exact tolls are hard to confirm, and most estimates are understood to be massively underestimated. The United Nations estimates that over four million children across Ukraine need humanitarian assistance and that two-thirds of them have been forced to flee their homes.
According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the majority of people who have left Ukraine are elderly, or women and girls. Those inside the country also face extraordinary challenges,
“There are situations where we see half of the community has been destroyed, like all of the buildings, all of the villages, unfortunately. A lot of people have fled and they moved with nothing,” says Mykola Lialenko, the IRC’s basic needs manager in Odesa, Ukraine.
Reports indicate that 40 per cent of Ukraine’s physical infrastructure has been destroyed while the gross domestic product fell by 33 per cent. According to Russia’s Finance Ministry, annual revenue fell 35 per cent in 2022 while spending rose 59 per cent.
As the war in Ukraine has no end in sight with the progress at the negotiating table seems just as unlikely, millions of lives are facing ever-increasing risk, with the ripple effects of the conflict manifesting globally through food supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing energy prices and soaring inflation.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows any signs of backing down and abandoning one of the largest military conflicts since the end of World War II.
Putin has already made it clear that he cannot afford to be seen as backing out of a fight that he started and by his own estimates should have been able to easily win. As a result, Russian forces are trying hard to make headway in the eastern parts of Ukraine.
The Russian artillery, drones and missiles have been pounding Ukrainian-held eastern areas relentlessly for months. The forces are launching attacks on civilian areas, important buildings, etc.
For Zelensky, the stakes are high. He has publicly said that his country's forces will recapture Crimea. A survey of Ukrainians last September showed they are steadfast in rejecting territorial concessions to Russia.
However, analysts are of the opinion that if Ukraine mounts a serious threat to Crimea, it could harden the resolve of Russians. A fight over Crimea would likely be a bitter one, they say, pointing out that Ukraine's ability to capture it "is highly unlikely."
Still, the entire West, led by the US, has been supplying Ukraine with weapons up to this point. The West's ability and willingness to sustain Ukraine's economy and military are up against Russia's capacity. So it is very difficult to predict how long that will last.
Since the bloodshed began, there were frequent news reports suggesting peace on the horizon. Instead, what we have witnessed is just an escalation of the war and a collapse of negotiations.
Till the time when Russia or Ukraine accepts the realities on the ground and takes tough decisions and honour human life, the David and Goliath conflict will drag on and on.
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