It is always fascinating to me to look back down memory lane and notice how the smart-phone market has evolved in just a little less than 15 years. It was 2007 when my friend Gabriele called me on my Nokia phone one evening and told me: “Have you seen Steve Jobs’ announcement? The world has changed forever!”.
I remember that I was on the way to a business meeting and on the spot I did not pay too much attention to his claim. Frankly, even in the weeks to come, after watching a replay of the iconic moment, I was not particularly impressed. With hindsight, I simply did not understand the magnitude of the change introduced by such a product as an ecosystem catalyst. I was not alone in such misjudgment.
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer outright laughed at the idea that people could buy an iPhone, manifesting perhaps the worst prediction made in modern history. Apple managed to play alone in the smart-phone space for nearly two years before the first signs of competition approached. During that period, the line between smart-phones and non-smart-phones was rather thin. Many might have forgotten that the first iPhone shipped without the possibility to perform a simple copy and paste. At the same time, Nokia non-smart-phones were quite advanced for the amount of features packed in.
In 2009, in fact, the Finnish giant was taking close to 40 per cent of all mobile phones market, while Apple went from zero to 15 per cent in a less than 20 months. At that point, RIM (Research in Motion) which was known for the iconic Blackberry was still holding on to 20 per cent of the market, while Samsung was just getting started, at around 3 per cent.
Fast forward 2 years and the Korean manufacturer jumped close to 23 per cent of all phones, hitting severely the sales figures of both Nokia and RIM, respectively reduced to 13.6 per cent and 9.6 per cent. HTC also grew considerably, holding a 10 per cent market share.
By the end of 2012, Nokia was marginalized to irrelevance, while Blackberry phones were only 4 per cent of those in circulation. HTC lost ground to new players like Sony, Huawei, Lenovo and LG, while Samsung consolidated the spot as top manufacturer, with nearly 1 device in 3 being made in Korea. Apple was cruising at 14 per cent.
In late 2014, Samsung was reduced to 20 per cent and Apple, through a clever differentiation of products offering, climbed to a new high of nearly 20 per cent, thus challenging the spot of market leader. Meanwhile, a myriad of other players grew their presence in the industry, with 46 per cent of all phones being produced by non-top manufacturers.
Without a doubt, China’s economy fast growth contributed to bring more and more manufacturers among the tops players in the industry. By Q1 2021, Samsung and Apple are relatively stable at 22 per cent and 16 per cent respectively, while Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo emerged as some of the top brands in terms of sales, with 14 per cent, 11 per cent and 10 per cent respectively.
Huawei faced a severe and unexpected market loss when Google banned their operating system Android on Huawei devices. Today, the real market dominant is in fact Google, not for its marginal amount of phones produced, but for powering with Android 4 out 5 devices in the world.
[The columnist is a member of the International Press Association]
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