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The arms race on the Korean peninsula

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Josh Smith -


South Korea and North Korea have continued to pour resources into modernising their militaries despite a frenzy of diplomacy since 2018, data shows, creating a point of tension that has sharpened as talks have stalled.


Military buildups on both sides of the heavily fortified border between the two nations have come to the forefront with recent short-range missile launches by North Korea, perfecting an arsenal it says is necessary to defend against new South Korean weapons.


On Wednesday North Korean state media reported that leader Kim Jong Un had personally supervised the test firing of a large multiple-rocket launch system, a type of weapon analysts say threatens forces in South Korea.


Pyongyang has sharply criticised US-South Korean military drills and South Korea’s defence procurements — including an aircraft carrier, stealth fighters and spy satellites — as undisguised preparations for a preemptive strike.


In a commentary, North Korean state news agency KCNA said South Korea’s pursuit of new weapons systems is an “unpardonable act of perfidy” that threatens to undermine peace on the peninsula. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) did not respond to requests for comment.


South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s administration has committed billions of additional dollars to the country’s defence budget, which is already among the largest in the world.


In 2018 South Korea’s military expenditures reached $43.1 billion, an increase of 7 per cent compared with 2017, according to the MND. It was the biggest single-year jump since a 8.7 per cent increase in 2009.


In July the MND announced South Korea would build a light aircraft carrier, the country’s first. And in August it unveiled a plan to spend about $239 billion more between 2020 and 2024.


About $85 billion of the future budget is earmarked for arms improvements, representing an average 10.3 per cent year-on-year increase.


“Given the recent uncertain security environment, the government is investing heavily in strengthening its defence capabilities,” the MND said when the plan was announced.


By 2023, the “force enhancement” budget will account for more than 36 per cent of total defence spending, up from about 31 per cent this year, according to South Korea’s 2018 Defense White Paper.


The planned aircraft carrier is expected to accommodate vertical-landing F-35B stealth fighter jets.


Among the other weapons on Seoul’s shopping list are new missile defence systems; three more destroyers equipped with the cutting-edge Aegis radar system; spy satellites and high-altitude reconnaissance drones; anti-submarine helicopters; maritime patrol aircraft; submarines capable of firing cruise and ballistic missiles; and a warship armed with guided missiles.


“Neither Korea wants to a full-blown confrontation, but both want to make sure they have the weapons platforms and defence resources available in the event a flare-up happens,” said Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think-tank.


BUYING A BIG STICK


Of most immediate concern to North Korea, this year South Korea took delivery of the first of 40 land-based F-35A stealth aircraft from the United States.


North Korea criticised that as well as other weapons announcements as a reckless arms build-up that was forcing it to develop new short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to “completely destroy” the new threats.


The F-35 “puts North Korea’s anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence systems in an extremely vulnerable position, which is likely why the North is responding by accelerating its own SRBM development,” DePetris said.


North Korea also views the F-35s as violations of a military de-escalation agreement the two countries signed in September 2018. The Koreas agreed to cease “all hostile acts,” but the deal did not mention new weapons.


In 2016, the last year for which estimates were available, North Korea spent an estimated $4 billion, or 23 per cent of its GDP, on defence. Almost 5 per cent of the population serves on active duty in the military, according to the US State Department’s 2018 World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers report.


— Reuters


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