GENEVA: A recovery in global trade is expected to slow again in the first quarter of 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic keeps disrupting the travel industry after world trade contracted 9 per cent in 2020, a UN report said on Wednesday.
After lockdowns caused trade to shrink 15 per cent in the first half of 2020, it rebounded in the second half, with global trade in goods up about 8 per cent in the fourth quarter compared with the third, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.
That was largely due to developing countries, particularly those in East Asia, with trade in goods originating from the region up 12 per cent in the fourth quarter year-on-year.
“East Asian economies have been leading the recovery process with strong export growth and gains in global market share’’, UNCTAD said, adding that most manufacturing sectors rebounded in the fourth quarter, apart from energy and transport.
However, trade in services stagnated at levels seen in the third quarter, the report said, adding that exports of services from China, and to a lesser degree India, had fared relatively better than other countries.
For the first quarter of 2021, UNCTAD projects a 1.5 per cent fall in trade in goods versus the previous quarter, and a 7 per cent drop in trade in services, although it said its forecasts were uncertain due to the pandemic and uncertainty about stimulus packages.
The fourth quarter saw goods exports in China, where the novel coronavirus pandemic originated, up 17 per cent, with Japan registering 3 per cent and South Korea 4 per cent gains.
China’s economy grew by 2.3 per cent last year, with a 6.5 percent final quarter expansion helping to offset losses incurred during the early stages of the pandemic.
UNCTAD said that while goods trade grew throughout the second half of 2020, services trade continued “to lag substantially” due to “continued disruptions” in travel.
Global goods trade fell by 6 per cent overall in 2020, a sharp decline that was nonetheless 10.5 percentage points better than the services collapse.
During the final quarter, as winter waves of coronavirus infection swept Europe and North America, prompting further restrictions, US services exports fell by 26 per cent and the European Union’s by 14, while China’s grew by 2 per cent.
Goods exports from the US fell by 5 per cent, though the EU registered 3 per cent growth, in part due to increased demand for pharmaceuticals. — Reuters
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