From bad to worse: January passenger demand falls further

Steep decline: Middle Eastern airlines saw demand plunge 82.3 per cent in January compared to January 2019

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that passenger traffic fell in January 2021, both compared to pre-Covid levels (January 2019) and compared to the immediate month prior (December 2020).

Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of Covid-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to January 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern.

Middle Eastern airlines saw demand plunge 82.3 per cent in January compared to January 2019, which was broadly unchanged from an 82.6 per cent demand drop in December versus a year ago. Capacity fell 67.6 per cent, and load factor declined 33.9 percentage points to 40.8 per cent.

Total demand in January 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) was down 72.0 per cent compared to January 2019. That was worse than the 69.7 per cent year-over-year decline recorded in December 2020.

Total domestic demand was down 47.4 per cent versus pre-crisis (January 2019) levels. In December it was down 42.9 per cent on the previous year. This weakening is largely driven by stricter domestic travel controls in China over the Lunar New Year holiday period.

International passenger demand in January was 85.6 per cent below January 2019, a further drop compared to the 85.3 per cent year-to-year decline recorded in December.

“2021 is starting off worse than 2020 ended and that is saying a lot. Even as vaccination programmes gather pace, new Covid variants are leading governments to increase travel restrictions. The uncertainty around how long these restrictions will last also has an impact on future travel.

Forward bookings in February this year for the Northern Hemisphere summer travel season were 78 per cent below levels in February 2019,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director-General and CEO.