Can Spain break its political deadlock now?

Alvise Armellini -

Spain is having its fourth general election in four years on Sunday, but the new vote is unlikely to stabilise a country which is experiencing dramatic political fragmentation and a festering secession crisis in the region of Catalonia.

Spaniards are going back to the polls on November 10 after elections in April 2019, June 2016 and December 2015, all of which produced inconclusive results and left minority governments in charge of the country.

“Today in Spain you have three left-wing parties, three right-wing parties and three separatist Catalan parties,” Federico Santi, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said.

“This makes it practically impossible to form a government.” Emerging from Francisco Franco’s long dictatorship in the 1970s, Spain established a democracy in which the socialist PSOE party and the conservative People’s Party (PP) took turns in ruling the country. But the political picture decomposed in the early 2010s.

On the left, Unidas Podemos and the newly formed Mas Pais have risen to challenge the PSOE, while on the right the PP faces competition from the liberal, anti-Catalan secession Ciudadanos, and the hard-right populist VOX.

Surveys indicate that outgoing Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE will again win the most votes on Sunday, but fall short of a majority, in a replay of what happened in April. Sanchez is currently in office as a caretaker.

On November 3, a polls of polls had the PSOE on 27 per cent, the PP on 21 per cent, VOX on 14 per cent, Podemos on 12 per cent, Ciudadanos on 9 per cent and the Catalan ERC and Mas Pais both on 4 per cent.

The election was called because Sanchez could not form a governing alliance with Podemos or Ciudadanos. If the stalemate reoccurs after Sunday, the PP could perhaps try a coalition with Ciudadanos and VOX.

But while the PP and VOX’s poll numbers are up compared to April, Ciudadanos’ are down, and the three parties together are unlikely to command a majority.

A third option - seen as a remote possibility - would be for the PP and Ciudadanos to allow a PSOE minority government. In 2016, ten months of political deadlock were solved by a deal to allow a PP minority government.

Parliamentary arithmetics are complicated by the presence of a handful of smaller, mostly regional forces, such as the Basque PNV or the Catalan ERC. In the past, they cooperated with PSOE, but the Catalan issue is an obstacle.

Three weeks ago, Spain’s supreme court handed long prison sentences to Catalan separatist leaders for organising an illegal independence referendum in 2017. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras was jailed for 13 years.

The ruling sparked days of mass protests in Catalonia, some of which turned violent. More demonstrations are expected on the eve of the election, putting once again a deeply polarising issue into the national spotlight.

In Catalonia, the unrest could strengthen radicals opposed to any cooperation with the PSOE, while in the rest of Spain, it could fuel anti-Catalan sentiment and benefit VOX, which is strongly against secessionist movements as well as against immigrants.

Franco’s legacy is another issue weighing on the campaign, after the PSOE’s decision to exhume him from a controversial mausoleum and give him a more discreet burial. The move has reopened old historical wounds and could mobilise both left and rightwing voters.

VOX first entered parliament in April. According to Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence, it is enjoying a “surprising rise” and “could be in a position to compete with Podemos for becoming Spain’s third-largest party.” — dpa