Can Asean diplomacy end Myanmar crisis?

Tom Allard -

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) holds a meeting of foreign ministers on Tuesday to discuss the crisis after Myanmar’s February 1 coup, which will include representation from the military government.

The United Nations, United States, European Union, China and Asian powers have all identified Asean as a potentially pivotal player in resolving the crisis in Myanmar, which is one of its 10 members. The group has the unofficial motto “One Family” and tends to stress stability and development above political rights. Its diverse membership includes Indonesia, the world’s third biggest democracy, but also communist Vietnam and Laos and Brunei, one of the world’s last absolute monarchies.

Several Asean diplomats said the group’s credibility was at stake over Myanmar.

Asean has advantages in its standing as the region’s premier multinational forum and its connections to junta members, but its requirement for consensus and principle of non-interference make agreement harder. As a member, Myanmar must agree with any action too. Critics, including the advocacy group Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights, say the body has repeatedly failing to tackle human rights abuses in the region. Diplomats and analysts say the most that might happen in the short-term is the encouragement of dialogue between the junta and its opponents to avoid worse bloodshed.

Longer term, an Indonesian plan for Asean to oversee a new election to ensure it is fair and inclusive could allow the junta to step down and put Myanmar back on the course to democracy, its proponents say.

But ousted parliamentarians and protesters have rejected a new election — demanding respect for a ballot last year that was swept by Aung San Suu Kyi’s party.

The United States and some Western countries have introduced targeted sanctions on junta leaders and Myanmar’s ousted elected leaders and protesters would happily see more. But given its structure — and Myanmar’s membership — any sanctions are unlikely from Asean. That said, regional businesses could feel the impact of Western sanctions.

While financial centre Singapore, also a close US ally, said it rejected sanctions itself, its central bank also told financial institutions to be vigilant about the risks of dealing with companies or individuals that could be under sanctions by other nations. — Reuters