Since October, French President Emmanuel Macron has questioned the effectiveness of Nato, hit pause on EU enlargement and called for a new ‘strategic relationship’ with Russia. Plenty of countries have reason to pay close attention to his “shake it up” style of diplomacy, but few places will feel his words more keenly than Serbia. For Belgrade, any pullback by Europe or Nato could allow space for Russia to fill the void, given the close political, military and economic ties Moscow has with its Balkans cousin — a fellow Slavic and Orthodox Christian state.
That is likely to be of concern for Nato leaders, who gather in Britain next week to discuss the future of their military alliance, since the Balkans, much like the Baltics, can be seen as a bulkhead against Moscow’s influence.
“Nato works to promote stability, security and cooperation in the Western Balkans,” said a Nato official. “Any outside interference in domestic democratic processes is unacceptable. We urge Russia to do the same.” In a recent example of alleged interference, Serbian intelligence agencies uncovered evidence of Russian spies building contacts with former members of the Serbian military.
Russia’s foreign ministry played down the report, calling it a “provocation”, while Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said it wouldn’t harm relations between the two, adding he was sure President Vladimir Putin “was not informed about this”.
Alarm bells for the region rang in mid-October, when Macron refused to sign off on allowing Albania and North Macedonia, two of Serbia’s neighbours, to begin talks on joining the EU.
Macron has grown increasingly wary of EU expansion, arguing that the 28-country group needs to take stock of its near doubling in size over the past 15 years, assess the impact of Britain’s pending departure, and think hard about the criteria it applies to those seeking to join.
While Serbia has already begun membership talks, it now feels the chill of Macron’s refusal to open the door to others on its patch.
At the same time, while nearly all surrounding countries have joined or are about to join Nato, Serbia remains out and is committed to neutrality, the memory of Nato’s bombing of its territory during the 1999 Kosovo war still fresh.
It does belong to Nato’s “partnership for peace” and takes part in Nato exercises, but its military has ties to Russia and Moscow provides technology and patronage, recently deploying its S-400 missile-defence system in Serbia for training. — Reuters
Luke Baker & Aleksandar Vasovic
Oman Observer is now on the WhatsApp channel. Click here
