The massive costs of anti-immigration policies
Immigration has become the central fault line in contemporary politics. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States and the United Kingdom, where the rhetoric is becoming increasingly...
Rconomic centrism in a polarised world
It’s not easy being a centrist economist in today’s polarised, social-media-driven world, where every idea is quickly forced into one ideological camp or another. To paraphrase a remark often...
Will AI pay off the West’s debts?
There is no question that AI is changing the global economy at unprecedented speed. But will it rescue rich countries from intensifying debt pressures, particularly as rapidly ageing populations...
Failure of anti-austerity populism in the world
To understand the populist revolt against free trade and other pillars of mainstream economics – a revolt that US President Donald Trump harnessed to his political ambitions with remarkable skill...
Is Trump winning on economic policy?
Six months into his second term, it is fair to say that US President Donald Trump has swept the board when it comes to economic policy – at least by the standards he set for himself. In fact, he has...
What Trump 2.0 means for Africa, Latin America
While global attention is focused on US President Donald Trump’s policies towards Europe, China and Russia, his impact on Africa and Latin America could be just as profound. My forthcoming book, Our...
Europe in Trump’s crosshairs
This year’s World Economic Forum in Davos was brimming with creative ideas about how to save the planet, reduce inequality, and tackle urgent security needs. Overwhelmingly, though, the big takeaway...
Opinion- Is capitalism really the cause of global inequality?
In 2014, the French economist Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century became an international sensation, reshaping the inequality debate and launching its author into superstardom....
Harris plays chess while Trump plays checkers
Regardless of who wins November’s US presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump, there is little doubt that the outcome will have a profound impact on the...
Will Trump get his wish for a weaker dollar?
If former US President Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025 – and most betting markets still have the odds at 60 per cent or better – will he achieve the weak dollar that both he and...
Are Americans ready for the US-China trade war?
It is hard to think of an issue that brings together the United States’ deeply divided political class more than the need to contain China’s growing influence, whether through trade restrictions,...
Can Europe's economy exceed expectations in 2024?
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are...
Don’t count on a soft landing for the global economy
A month into 2024, the consensus forecast for the global economy remains cautiously optimistic, with most central banks and analysts projecting either a soft landing or potentially no landing at all....
The global economy is not out of the woods
The global economy was full of surprises in 2023. Despite the sharp rise in interest rates, the United States successfully avoided a recession, and major emerging markets did not spiral into a debt...
The stunning resilience of emerging markets
As finance ministers and central bankers convened in Marrakesh for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings on October 9-15, they faced an extraordinary confluence of economic...
The Bank of Japan’s seductive widow-maker trade
Could Japan become the world’s next great growth story? Billionaire and legendary investor Warren Buffett seems to think so. And the International Monetary Fund expects the Japanese economy to grow...
The debt supercycle comes to China
The 2008 financial crisis in the United States kicked off a debt supercycle, which spread to Europe in 2010 and has recently engulfed many of the world’s low-income and lower-middle-income...
Rethinking climate finance for the developing world
Speaking to the Financial Times at the June 22-23 Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, Kenyan President William Ruto called for the establishment of a “global green bank” that would...
The US debt ceiling debacle is not over
The tentative deal that was just struck to raise the United States’ debt ceiling won’t make the problem go away. Partisan standoffs over the federal debt limit have become a predictable feature of...
Too soon for global optimism...
Many of those who attended this year’s meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile the optimism of these...