SAO PAULO: Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday in the first round of a narrowly split election after a campaign dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of US meddling. Leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term, while Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, hopes to return his father's right-wing movement to power.
A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with US President Donald Trump, while Lula's re-election could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security. Despite growing worries over Brazil's public finances and sluggish economic growth, the campaign has offered meagre policy debate, as both leading candidates skipped the major TV debates. If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of valid votes, the top two will face off on October 25. Surveys show Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro polling roughly even in a likely runoff.
Other candidates, including former state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, have struggled to break through with the polarised electorate, even as Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are each rejected by roughly half of voters, polls show. Flavio Bolsonaro has promised to seek amnesty for his father, who is serving a sentence of more than 27 years for plotting a coup after his narrow election defeat in 2022. Lula has cast the election as a choice between "democracy and denialism" and repeatedly warned of foreign interference.
The fallout from Jair Bolsonaro's conviction last year has coloured much of the campaign. Trump, who called that case a "witch hunt," imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Brazil in 2025, explicitly linking the tariffs to the trial of Bolsonaro after lobbying from the Bolsonaro family to pressure Brazil's Supreme Court to drop the charges. This year, Trump levied new tariffs over alleged unfair trade practices. Lula has cast the move as an attempt to sway the election and portrayed the Bolsonaros as too eager to please Washington at Brazil's expense.
Lula's allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise election results if he wins. They point to a failed effort to send US officials to Brazil in order to "discuss electoral integrity," according to the US State Department. Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged US and Russian interference before the election. The US has rejected claims of interference in Brazil's affairs.
Trump has not formally endorsed a candidate, though he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly. The senator, who has pledged closer ties with the US and Israel, welcomed the Trump administration's designation of Brazil's major gangs as terrorist groups, which Lula rejected. Also in play is US access to Brazil's vast critical mineral reserves, key to Washington's push to reduce dependence on China for those materials.
Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to capitalise on cost-of-living concerns, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race tightened, expanded welfare and proposed fresh debt relief for families. Rising spending and public debt above 82 per cent of GDP have stoked fiscal concerns that Brazil's president may need to address. The government lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next to just 2.0 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively. — Reuters
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