By Matthias WilliamsThe writer is based in United Kingdom, and is currently a Lead Writer, Germany and Austria and Switzerland at Thomson Reuters
Chancellor Friedrich Merz was clinging to power on Monday after his conservative party tumbled to its worst regional election defeat in postwar Germany and members of his coalition clashed over his unpopular reform agenda.
Merz himself described Sunday's loss in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a "disaster" as his party for the first time missed the 5 per cent threshold for entering a state parliament.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place. While it fell well short of a majority, it was the second time the party had topped a state election within a month, which it sees as building momentum towards national power.
Merz's party also bled votes in a second election in the state of Berlin, which could see the far-left Die Linke party, the descendants of the Communist party that once ran East Germany, take power in a coalition after winning most seats.
Sunday's results may not prove a knock-out blow for Merz, but his low approval ratings, unpopular reforms and the AfD's surge have left his future in the balance.
Several conservative state premiers met on Sunday to take stock after having publicly backed Merz in an open letter last week.
"The meeting was not about a revolt or a plot against Chancellor Merz," one of the participants of the meeting said.
"However, there was agreement that the Chancellor needs to deliver more following the CDU's difficult results in the state elections."
Within minutes of the results coming in on Sunday, Merz in televised remarks vowed to press on with his reform agenda that he says is vital to revive sluggish growth in Europe's largest economy and keep it globally competitive.
But members of his centre-left coalition partner, the Social Democrats, pushed back. That includes Manuela Schwesig, the popular incumbent state premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, who has sharply criticised the federal government's pension reforms.
Schwesig said she was "very irritated" by Merz's remarks. "I think more humility is actually called for on the part of the Chancellor," she told the ARD broadcaster.
The AfD party leads in national opinion polls but has been kept from power by the other main parties' refusal to work with it, in a policy known as the "firewall" that has been increasingly scrutinised as the AfD gained strength. Its hardline stance on immigration has left some in Germany of migrant background questioning their future.
"The fact that the AfD is in the lead is quite a bitter pill to swallow," said Yasmin Goudarzi, an educational scientist who attended an election event hosted by a migrant organisation in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's capital Schwerin.
In Berlin, Die Linke topped the polls in a state election for the first time on a campaign to nationalise housing from corporate landlords and put a cap on rents, echoing the rise of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
"From today, we're changing Berlin together," said Die Linke's lead candidate Elif Eralp, the 45-year-old daughter of left-wing Turkish parents who fled a coup in Türkiye in 1980.
Elected last year on a promise of reforms to return Germany's stagnant economy to growth, Merz has struggled to win over voters, as a stream of communication missteps served to compound resentment over unpopular pension, tax and healthcare reforms.
Disillusionment with his government has hung over the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on soaring energy and housing costs.
Schwesig, sometimes seen as a potential next SPD national leader, is likely to remain in power in her state.
"Yes, I would have imagined a different outcome as well because, let's say, the troublemakers who voted for the AfD clearly weren't paying attention in history class," said Detlef Spelker, a passerby in Schwerin.
"We've been in a similar situation before, almost 100 years ago. Inflation, problems with jobs, nobody had any money. We'll see what this brings now. I don't know whether they'll deliver."
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