History does not always repeat itself, but it often rhymes with unsettling precision.
Few episodes capture this better than the fall of the Mughal Empire’s wealth in the eighteenth century, when one miscalculation exposed an entire civilisation to external exploitation.
In 1739, Nader Shah, the formidable ruler of Persia, who a number of historians referred to as Napoleon of the East while he had more superior military skills than his French counterpart, invaded the Indian subcontinent, then one of the richest regions on earth under the Mughal Empire.
At the Battle of Karnal (February 24, 1739), Mughal forces led by Muhammad Shah suffered a decisive defeat. What followed was not merely a military victory, but one of history’s most consequential wealth transfers.
Nader Shah entered Delhi in March 1739 and seized immense treasures, including the legendary Peacock Throne and the Koh-i-Noor diamond.
Contemporary accounts estimate the plunder at nearly 700 million rupees at the time, equivalent to hundreds of billions of Omani Rials today. The scale was so vast that, upon returning to Persia, Nader Shah reportedly abolished taxation in Persia for three years. The real damage was not the looting itself. It was what came after.
The invasion exposed the structural fragility of the Mughal Empire, and over time, Paris itself, its overcentralisation, weak military coordination, and internal fragmentation. These vulnerabilities did not go unnoticed.
Over the following decades, the British Empire capitalised on this weakness, gradually tightening its grip over the subcontinent and within a century over Persia itself.
By the time British rule formally ended in 1947, economists such as Utsa Patnaik estimate that Britain had extracted the equivalent of $45 trillion in wealth from India, well over RO 17 trillion in today’s terms.
This was not just economic extraction. It was a strategic takeover enabled by internal miscalculations and external opportunism, a pattern that can be described as the Peacock Throne Syndrome: when symbolic power blinds decision-makers to systemic vulnerabilities, inviting its own exploitation and the exploitation of its neighbours. Today, the echoes are difficult to ignore.
Since October 2023, regional tensions have escalated dramatically following the genocidal wars waged by the Israeli occupation against all its neighbours, with the United States playing a central military and strategic role as the enabler.
By 2025-2026, direct and indirect confrontations involving Iran have intensified, including missile and drone exchanges that have extended beyond traditional battle zones.
What is particularly concerning is the geographic distribution of risk. While Iran’s strategic posture has historically focused on deterrence against Zionism, regional spillovers have increasingly affected its southern neighbourhood. The Arabian Gulf, responsible for nearly 30 per cent of global oil shipments and hosting some of the world’s most critical energy corridors, has become an arena of heightened vulnerability. Even limited disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz can send shockwaves across global markets. The International Energy Agency estimates that roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day pass through this narrow passage.
The global economic implications are immediate. According to the World Bank, a sustained 10 per cent increase in oil prices can reduce global GDP growth by up to 0.2 percentage points, while import-dependent regions, like much of the Arab world, face disproportionate inflationary pressures, particularly in food and logistics.
In this context, any escalation that disproportionately destabilises the Gulf risks triggering the same vulturistic dynamic that followed Karnal: internal fractures creating openings for vulturistic players, such as the Israeli occupation, to consolidate influence, whether through invasions, data colonisation, security guarantees, energy market control, or financial leverage. This is where the lesson becomes urgent.
The Peacock Throne was not lost because it lacked elite luxury, beauty, or value. It was lost because its guardians misunderstood the nature of power. They defended symbols, but neglected systems.
Based on the KNIFE framework, the region must first Know the real job to be done: safeguarding long-term stability, not short-term symbolic victories. Second, it must Narrow the narrative away from ideological escalation toward shared economic survival. Third, Gulf states must Innovate with the right end in mind, strengthening regional supply chains, energy diversification, and defence interoperability.
Fourth, they must Filter out bad ideas, particularly those that escalate tensions without strategic gain. Finally, the region must Elevate its collective position through pragmatic diplomacy and enforceable economic partnerships.
The Arabian Gulf is not just a region of hydrocarbons. It is the connective tissue of global trade, finance, and energy security. Its true strength lies not in confrontation, but in coordination.
If history offers any warning, it is this: civilisations are rarely defeated by external enemies alone. More often, they are weakened from within, by misjudgment, division, and the illusion of invulnerability.
The Peacock Throne Syndrome is not inevitable. But ignoring it would be.
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