The hidden price of the war with Iran

When people think about war, they often imagine distant battlefields, political leaders and military strategy. What is less visible, but far more immediate, is how conflict quietly reshapes everyday life across the world. The ongoing war involving Iran is not just a geopolitical crisis; it is already altering the global production of basic necessities such as food, water, energy and everyday household goods.

One of the most immediate impacts has been on energy. The Middle East is central to global oil and gas supply, and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes, handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil and gas flows. Any disruption in this passage creates shock across global markets. Since the war escalated, oil prices have surged dramatically, in some cases exceeding $100 per barrel in the United States, according to reports.

We are already seeing the consequences. Gasoline prices have risen significantly and electricity bills are beginning to increase as energy costs ripple through national economies. But the impact does not stop there. Energy is the foundation of modern production. From the plastic used in water bottles to food packaging, from heating systems to dryers and stoves, many everyday items depend on oil and gas. When energy prices rise, the cost of producing and transporting these goods rises with them.

The conflict is not only about oil, but it is also disrupting global supply chains for fertiliser, a key component of food production. The Gulf region plays a critical role in producing and exporting nitrogen-based fertilisers, many of which rely on natural gas as a primary input. In fact, according to the UN, around 30 per cent of global fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. As tensions escalate and shipping routes become unstable, fertiliser prices have already begun to climb sharply.

The consequences for food production are serious. Fertiliser is essential for growing staple crops such as wheat, rice and maize. When fertiliser becomes more expensive or harder to access, farmers either reduce usage or absorb higher costs, both of which lead to higher food prices. Analysts are already warning that the war could contribute to global food insecurity and rising inflation.

This creates a chain reaction. Higher fertiliser costs lead to higher food prices, which in turn affect households worldwide. For people already struggling with the cost of living, even small increases in grocery prices can have significant consequences. The war, therefore, is not confined to the Middle East; it is being felt in supermarkets and households across the globe.

Water is also affected; producing and transporting clean water requires energy, whether through desalination, pumping, or purification systems. In many Gulf countries, desalination plants rely heavily on energy inputs. As energy prices rise, so does the cost of producing water, placing additional strain on infrastructure and public services.

Another sector already showing signs of strain is travel. Airplanes rely heavily on jet fuel, which is directly tied to oil prices. As fuel costs increase, airlines are forced to raise ticket prices to offset expenses. Recent data shows that airfare has already begun to climb as jet fuel prices rise. For many people, this means that summer travel plans may become unaffordable or significantly more expensive than expected.

Yet beyond these immediate effects lies a deeper, longer-term issue: the economic cost of war itself. Wars are expensive. They cost governments millions, often billions, of dollars. This spending does not occur in isolation. It contributes to national debt, which governments must eventually address through budget cuts, higher taxes, or reduced public spending.

The consequences are felt domestically. Increased military spending often comes at the expense of healthcare, education and public services. Citizens, many of whom may not support the war, end up bearing the financial burden. This creates a cycle in which war abroad translates into reduced quality of life at home.

The global economy is already fragile. Inflation remains high in many countries, wages are struggling to keep pace and basic necessities are becoming harder to afford. In this context, the war against Iran acts as an additional pressure point, accelerating economic instability.

What makes this situation particularly concerning is how interconnected everything is. Energy affects manufacturing and manufacturing affects food production. Food production affects global stability. A disruption in one region can quickly turn into a global crisis.

The war against Iran is a reminder that modern conflicts are not isolated events. They are deeply embedded in global systems, economic, environmental and social. When those systems are disrupted, the effects reach far beyond the battlefield. Ultimately, the people most affected are not policymakers or military leaders, but ordinary citizens. They are the ones paying higher bills, facing rising food prices, cancelling travel plans and dealing with the consequences of decisions made far from their daily lives.