One of the most influential television series of the past decade is Game of Thrones. Beyond its dragons and battles, the series captured global attention through a simple yet powerful warning: “Winter is Coming.” It was not merely about the weather. It is a reminder that in today’s world Murphy’s Law applies, “anything that can go wrong will go wrong”, and that unseen dangers were approaching, that complacency would be costly, and that societies ignoring early signals would eventually pay a heavy price.
As the holy month of Ramadhan 2026 approaches, a similar warning seems to echo across today’s international landscape. “Ramadhan is Coming” is not only a spiritual reminder. It is a strategic one. It arrives at a moment of growing global polarisation, rising military spending and fragile, struggling diplomacy, especially in our wider Global South region.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military expenditure is almost RO1 billion in 2024, the highest level ever recorded and is expected to rise in 2025. Major powers are expanding their defence budgets while reducing investments in diplomacy and development. History suggests that this combination rarely leads to stability. It usually signals preparation for confrontation.
This tension is more visible than in the never ending bullying of sovereign nations such as Iran by the US, mainly on behalf of an aspiring regional bully- the Israeli occupation. Years of sanctions, assassinations, cyber operations, maritime incidents and proxy conflicts have created traumatised, fragmented populations and a volatile environment. While ongoing negotiations in our Muscat demonstrate Oman’s continued role as a trusted mediator, the wider regional context remains fragile. A single miscalculation, political, military, or technological, could trigger escalation far beyond bilateral disputes.
At the same time, Washington’s relations with Europe are increasingly strained over the threat to annex Greenland, trade tariffs, energy security, elections interference and defence burdens. In South America, the kidnapping of the Venezuelan President and the looting of its natural resources, economic pressure, political interference and sanctions continue to shape domestic politics. These patterns reflect what analysts wrongly call “coercive diplomacy” while it's nothing but crimes against humanity: Enforcing obedience through violence rather than building consensus through partnership.
Such strategies have failed repeatedly in both ancient and modern history. The First World War was preceded by rigid alliances and misjudged deterrence. The Second World War followed economic collapse and unchecked expansionism. The Cold War drained trillions of dollars from social development. Today, the world appears to be drifting toward a new era of both; moral and moral collapse, due to impunity towards two connected, most heinous crimes- genocide and paedophilia, enabled by data colonisation, cyber warfare and economic sanctions.
More than 60 countries are now developing military applications of machine learning based on questionably gathered personal data, according to UN disarmament researchers. These technologies compress decision-making time and reduce human oversight, increasing the risk of accidental escalation. Genocide, once driven by political calculation, can now be triggered by algorithms, as International Criminal Court (ICC) concluded is the case in the Palestinian Occupied Territories.
For the Arabian Gulf, any major aggression, especially against our neighbouring Iran, would have immediate grave consequences. While many experts highlight the most relevant consequences as affected energy exports, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, food imports, insurance costs and financial stability, investment would slow, supply chains would strain and uncertainty would ripple through every sector, I strongly believe the most significant consequence is the unjust, continuous suffering imposed on of the one of the most life-loving, creative, open and proud people in the world, the people of Iran.
For us in Oman, the stakes are particularly high. Oman’s long-standing foreign policy has been built on balance, dialogue and non-alignment and history proved us right time and again. This approach has protected our sovereignty while enhancing our international credibility. Yet in a polarised world, maintaining equilibrium requires greater strategic discipline than ever before.
Oman Vision 2040 depends on stable trade routes, investor confidence and predictable regional relations. Prolonged crises would affect logistics, tourism, manufacturing and financial services. Social stability, too, is inseparable from economic certainty. Rising costs and disrupted markets inevitably affect households and small businesses.
Yet Ramadhan offers an alternative narrative.
It is a month of restraint, reflection and moral recalibration. It reminds societies that real strength lies not only in military power, but in wisdom; not only in deterrence, but in dialogue. At a time when global discourse is dominated by threats and ultimatums, Ramadhan invites patience, accountability and ethical leadership.
Oman’s quiet diplomacy reflects this spirit. It shows that influence does not require intimidation and that credibility can be more powerful than coercion. In an era of strategic noise, this model remains one of the region’s most valuable assets.
Knowledge demands that we read global signals honestly, relying on data rather than propaganda. Narrative requires shaping our own story — one rooted in stability, mediation and shared prosperity. Impact reminds us that every foreign policy decision must be judged by its effects on people’s lives. Framework calls for institutional resilience, diversification and crisis preparedness. Elevation challenges leaders and citizens alike to rise above fear and short-term thinking.
“Winter is Coming” warned of darkness. “Ramadhan is Coming” can remind us of responsibility.
The coming months will test whether the struggling diplomacy can still prevail over militarisation and resource theft, and whether cooperation can outpace bullying. This is not a time for complacency. It is a time for strategic awareness, moral clarity and collective discipline.
History is unforgiving to societies that ignore early warnings. It rewards those who prepare, adapt and lead with conscience. As we enter this sacred month, the real question is not whether storms are gathering, but whether we are ready to navigate them with wisdom, unity and purpose.
Khalid al Huraibi
The writer is an innovator and an insights storyteller
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