MUSCAT: Oil prices hovered around two-month highs on Friday as traders weighed the initial readout from Iran–United States contacts hosted in Muscat, with markets showing cautious relief but little conviction that tensions have materially eased.
Ali al Riyami, an Omani energy analyst, said the generally positive tone following the meeting helped reduce the geopolitical “risk premium” that had built into crude prices, nudging them back towards fundamentals. However, he said investors continued to price in uncertainty, given conflicting signals on the broader security backdrop.
Reuters reported that Brent settled at $68.05 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate ended at $63.55, after earlier declines reversed during US trading.
Al Riyami noted that the market had been expecting a bigger breakthrough, even as public comments from Omani and Iranian officials were interpreted as encouraging. He pointed to fresh developments that traders read as negative, including renewed US guidance urging its citizens to leave Iran if it is safe to do so.
He added that reports of heightened military alertness in the Gulf – including prior advice for some personnel to leave Al Udeid Air Base – have also weighed on investor confidence and kept volatility elevated.
With about a fifth of global oil consumption moving through the Strait of Hormuz, Al Riyami said the next phase hinges on whether diplomacy gains traction. Any de-escalation that points to a durable agreement could see prices soften and stabilise, he said, while a renewed confrontation – especially one that threatens shipping lanes – could push crude sharply higher, with immediate spillovers for neighbouring economies.
Al Riyami said clearer direction may emerge as US markets complete Friday’s session, and when global trading resumes on Monday, February 9, 2026.
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