India is no longer “the next big market”. It is the market that every serious trade strategy must orbit. That is why two agreements reached within weeks of each other deserve Oman’s full attention: the Oman–India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed on December 18, 2025 and the EU–India free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations concluded in principle on January 27, 2026. They underline one reality: India is becoming the central junction in a re-wired global economy.
A predictable question follows. If European firms gain sweeping access to India under the EU–India FTA, does that weaken the advantage Oman secures through its CEPA? Only if we treat trade agreements as standalone trophies. In the modern economy, agreements are operating systems. Their value depends on interoperability: how well a country connects multiple trade architectures into bankable value chains. From that perspective, the EU–India FTA is not pressure on Oman’s CEPA; it is the catalyst that makes Oman’s CEPA more valuable, by expanding the number of firms, technologies and supply chains looking for reliable regional connectors.
The EU–India deal, as described by the European Commission, links markets covering about two billion people, cuts tariffs approximately 96.6% of EU goods exports to India and is expected to double EU goods exports to India by 2032 while saving around €4 billion a year in duties. It also strengthens services access and intellectual property protections.
Oman’s CEPA brings something different: speed, proximity and a Gulf platform that can translate market access into regional reach. India–Oman trade reached about $10.6 billion in FY 2024–25 and the CEPA can widen that corridor into new goods, services and investment. The strategic aim should be clear: move from a commodity-heavy pattern towards higher-value activity that builds capabilities in Oman.
Here is the opportunity the EU–India FTA creates for Oman. As European companies deepen their India footprint, they will look for regional nodes that can distribute efficiently to the Gulf and East Africa, handle re-export and light processing with minimal friction and offer credible trade finance and dispute resolution. Oman can offer this — if policy and execution are organised around the overlap.
Start with logistics and value-adding re-export. Europe’s improved access to India will increase flows of machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and high-value inputs moving into and out of India’s industrial clusters. Oman should position Al Duqm, Suhar and Salalah as the Gulf’s efficient “buffer”: a place where those flows are warehoused, packaged and redistributed to GCC markets and the wider region. The goal is simple: make Oman the place where EU–India value chains are structured, financed and deployed outward.
Next is industrial collaboration: European technology plus Indian scale plus Omani location. If the EU–India FTA accelerates technology transfer into India, Oman should target the “in-between” stages of those value chains that fit our zones and capabilities: specialty chemical blending and packaging, pharma secondary manufacturing (packaging and cold-chain distribution), precision maintenance and spare parts and selected component assembly for regional demand. These activities are not glamorous, but they are sticky: they create suppliers, skills and repeat business.
A third multiplier is the energy transition. Europe’s sustainability emphasis and India’s scale will drive investment into decarbonisation technologies and new fuels. Oman’s renewable resources and green hydrogen ambitions can be paired with Indian manufacturing capability and European standards and financing. The most strategic posture is triangular: attract European certification expertise, partner with Indian manufacturers and anchor projects in Oman where land and port access support export-oriented production.
The UAE offers a clear reference. The UAE–India CEPA entered into force on May 1, 2022 and India’s government reports that bilateral merchandise trade nearly doubled from $43.3 billion in FY 2020–21 to $83.7 billion in 2023–24. That outcome reflected strong facilitation and a practical focus on making trade faster and cheaper. Oman does not need to copy the UAE but it does need the same discipline of execution and time-bound delivery.
So what should Oman do now to make the CEPA a multiplier in the EU–India FTA era? Three moves stand out.
First, build a CEPA-to-investment pipeline. Translate tariff concessions and services commitments into an investable target list: specific sectors, anchor firms, zone-ready projects and financing packages. Without that pipeline, a CEPA risks becoming a legal text rather than an industrial strategy.
Second, launch explicit triangular programmes — EU–India–Oman — focused on bankable corridors. Examples include: a cold-chain corridor for fisheries and premium foods (Omani processing, Indian scale in packaging and distribution, European standards and buyers); a life-sciences packaging and distribution hub; and a green-molecules cluster aligned to European certification.
Third, invest in the “competitiveness stack”: rules of origin support, standards and testing capacity, faster customs clearance, workforce training for logistics and compliance and predictable dispute resolution. India rewards scale and speed. Europe rewards standards and documentation. Oman must be fluent in both.
If Oman treats its CEPA as a standalone deal, the EU–India FTA will look like competition. If Oman treats its CEPA as a connector — linking European capital and technology with Indian growth and Oman’s geography — then the EU–India FTA becomes a tailwind. It expands the playing field. Oman’s CEPA determines whether we operate from the sidelines — or from the centre.
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