Oman’s National Aviation Strategy 2040 should not be judged by runway upgrades, terminal expansions, or a longer list of destinations. It should be judged by something far more consequential for economic cohesion: whether aviation becomes a practical tool of mobility equity that connects governorates at a reasonable cost and with reliable frequency, or whether it remains a service that works best for those who can absorb peak-season prices and uncertainty.
In its detailed statement, the Civil Aviation Authority frames the strategy as a long-term road map that turns aviation into an economic and development engine supporting diversification and fiscal sustainability. It also sets ambitious 2040 targets, including more than 40 million passengers, one million tonnes of air cargo, private-sector investment exceeding RO 1 billion and lifting the sector’s GDP contribution to more than 3.5%. These numbers are impressive, but they will only carry public legitimacy if they translate into something the economy can feel: affordable and dependable domestic mobility that reduces friction in daily life and in commerce.
Domestic mobility is not a soft, social add-on. It is a hard economic input. When seats are scarce during peak weeks and fares surge, the country pays a hidden tax. Businesses postpone travel or push costs onto customers. SMEs absorb higher logistics and procurement expenses. Labour-market efficiency declines because people cannot move easily for interviews, training, or urgent family needs. Domestic tourism becomes less competitive precisely when it should be strongest. Even inflation dynamics can be affected when seasonal price spikes become normalised rather than treated as a system failure.
The strategy itself implicitly recognises that domestic connectivity is not purely a commercial matter. In Phase Two (2027–2030), it proposes developing a public service obligation (PSO) system to support domestic air routes. This is not a technical footnote. It is a policy signal that the state understands a basic truth: some routes are essential for economic cohesion and the market alone will not always deliver them at the price and reliability the country needs.
But Oman must be precise here. A PSO system can be designed as a disciplined contract that buys measurable public value, or it can become an open-ended subsidy that erodes accountability. The difference is in the details. If PSO support is deployed, it must purchase clear outcomes such as minimum frequencies, minimum seat capacity during peak periods, standards for on-time performance and transparent passenger-handling requirements when disruptions occur. It must also include fare safeguards, not as blunt price controls, but as rational ranges that prevent scarcity pricing from turning domestic travel into a seasonal financial shock. The public will accept support if they can see what it buys and they will resent it if it disappears into opaque arrangements.
Phase One (2026–2027) highlights strengthening passenger connectivity between Muscat and Salalah airports. That is a necessary step, yet it will not be sufficient if peak demand continues to be treated as an unavoidable reality rather than a design challenge. Peak season is not destiny. It is predictable. When a predictable problem produces the same predictable outcome every year — limited supply and runaway prices — the answer is not to tell the public to adjust expectations. The answer is to adjust the instruments that shape capacity, competition and incentives.
The Authority’s statement also emphasises a competitive and efficient aviation network serving multiple sectors. This matters, because equity does not have to conflict with competitiveness. In fact, well-designed equity improves competitiveness by lowering the economy’s transaction costs. The statement lists governance, economic legislation, service quality and private-sector attraction as key enablers. The practical test will be whether those enablers become enforceable rules and measurable standards, rather than broad commitments.
The strategy is linked to Oman Vision 2040 through diversification, stronger tourism and logistics positioning, Omanisation through skills and job creation; and sustainability, innovation and digital transformation. Those are big promises and they deserve a dashboard the public can follow. People should be able to see peak domestic fares relative to income, capacity versus demand during peak weeks, delay and cancellation rates; and the real spillovers into domestic tourism, business travel and job access across governorates.
If Oman gets domestic connectivity right — through dependable capacity, smart and transparent PSO contracts; and fair market rules that prevent extreme seasonal volatility — the Aviation Strategy 2040 will feel credible long before 2040 arrives. If it does not, the strategy risks becoming a high-ambition document that under-delivers on the most basic purpose of transport in a modern economy: making movement predictable, affordable and productive for the whole country.
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