Global stocks edged higher on Friday ahead of a crucial US jobs report, while investors awaited a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs that jolted markets last year.
Simmering geopolitical tensions across the globe boosted oil prices, as well as defence stocks and will remain in traders' minds as they weigh developments in Venezuela, Iran and Greenland. Much of the focus on Friday will be on the possible US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.
Striking down the tariffs could impact US government revenue, pushing Treasury yields higher and unleashing new waves of volatility across markets.
But the ruling was a "real wild card" and any move to slap down US tariffs would also be a big boost to broader market sentiment, Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said.
Some investors believe stocks could bounce if the court rolls back existing tariffs, especially for companies that had to absorb high-import costs.
"A constraint may be that even if the tariffs are ruled unlawful, the Trump administration is unlikely to roll over and will look to other ways to maintain the levies", he added.
For now, traders remain reluctant to place bets ahead of the market-moving events.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.6 per cent around midday in Europe. Major regional indices were in positive territory, with the French CAC 40 adding around 0.9 per cent and the German DAX up 0.5 per cent on the day.
S&P 500 futures EScv1 were up 0.1 per cent, suggesting a modest rise at the open later. The S&P 500 SPX ended flat on Thursday, although an aerospace and defence index rose to an all-time high, with European defence shares also hitting a new high.
Another key focus point will be December’s US jobs report, which comes after a flurry of labour market data points released earlier in the week.
"On the good side, I would say that there is no recession signal out of this labour market and that's positive. Perhaps on the more subdued side, there is no sign either of strong reacceleration. I think this is consistent with a relatively moderately growing economy, so no overheating, no growth above potential, no recession risk, nothing to be fearful about”, Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, said.
US jobs data earlier in the week from the JOLTS hirings report and ADP private sector payrolls showed employment in the world's largest economy is slowing.
"So we want the signals from the JOLTs that we got a couple of days ago, from the ADP, from the claims that we got yesterday, we want these signals to be confirmed today. And basically what we don't want is an upside surprise on the unemployment rate or on job creation”, Chaar said.
Right now, markets are pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. A strong monthly employment report could see that expectation pared back.
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 60,000 jobs last month after rebounding by 64,000 in November, a survey of economists estimated. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, the largest decrease in nearly five years, mostly federal government employees who took deferred buyouts. — Reuters
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