In an open market, a lower price can look like good news for consumers. But it can also be a warning signal for the economy when it is not driven by higher efficiency or better productivity, but by unfair trading practices designed to undercut the market and later dominate it. That is where dumping begins: a quick gain at the checkout, followed by a quiet loss in investment, jobs and the resilience of local production.
Oman, by geography and by economic design, cannot treat imports as a threat in themselves. The issue is not importing. The issue is when imports become a tool to distort competition. Looking at the scale of trade helps explain why any “price distortion” matters. Preliminary NCSI data indicate that Oman’s goods imports reached RO 16.713 billion in 2024, against total goods exports of RO 24.230 billion, generating a trade surplus of RO 7.517 billion.
The bigger story is the composition of imports. In 2024, the highest-value import groups included mineral products (RO 4.674 billion) and machinery and electrical equipment (RO 2.934 billion), followed by base metals and articles thereof (RO 1.605 billion) and transport equipment (RO 1.516 billion). These are not marginal items. Many are direct inputs into industry, construction, energy and services. If those supply chains are hit by “broken-price” competition, the damage does not stop at a single factory. It spreads to contractors, suppliers, warehousing, transport and finance.
In 2025, sensitivity increased as imports continued to rise while the surplus narrowed. Preliminary NCSI data show that by end-September 2025, Oman recorded a trade surplus of RO 3.885 billion, down 42% from the same period in 2024 (RO 6.743 billion). Imports rose 9.3% to RO 13.297 billion, from RO 12.163 billion a year earlier. This does not prove the market is being dumped, but it shows how quickly trade dynamics can pressure local industry and market balance when volumes and pricing shift.
Another layer of risk is that import costs are not static. NCSI reported that the import price index rose 1.3% in Q1 2025 compared with the same quarter of 2024. In Q3 2025, official indicators pointed to a 15.2% year-on-year increase. In such an environment, an “exceptionally low” price becomes more suspicious because it may not reflect real cost structures. It may instead reflect aggressive pricing, the dumping of surplus output, or hidden forms of support.
This is why “free trade” must be managed through “fair trade” rules. Oman has a legal framework within the GCC system to address dumping, countervailing measures and safeguards, under Royal Decree 20/2015, which gives effect to the GCC unified law.
What does Oman need in practical terms? It needs to move from reaction to prevention. A credible early-warning system should track unexplained spikes in volumes and sharp price drops, compare them with real domestic demand and detect origin manipulation or disguised re-exports before they become “normal” in the market. It also needs technically robust investigations, with as much transparency as commercial confidentiality allows. Markets do not tolerate information vacuums; they invite rumours, hoarding and opportunistic behaviour.
At the same time, the compass must remain clear. Anti-dumping action is not a war on imports. It is a defence of competition itself. If dumping channels are closed without improving the competitiveness of local producers, the problem is merely postponed. Industry is not built by duties alone, but by productivity, quality, efficient energy and logistics, accessible finance and innovation.
Ultimately, dumping is not just a cheaper price. It is a deferred economic decision. It may feel comfortable today, but it weakens local investment, shrinks employment, increases reliance on external suppliers and raises costs when the next shock hits. An open market needs rules and Oman can protect its market from harmful practices without losing the benefits of openness — if it treats fair trade as a daily policy, not a late exception.
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