LONDON/MOSCOW/BAGHDAD: OPEC+ is set to agree to further raise oil output on Sunday, while likely slowing the pace of increases from October compared with recent months due to weakening global demand, four OPEC+ sources said.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day.
The increase, equivalent to about 2.4% of world demand, was intended to boost market share amidst pressure from US President Donald Trump for lower oil prices. But the hikes have not significantly dented oil prices, which are trading near $66 a barrel, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further production increases by rivals such as the US.
A deal on Sunday to boost output from October — discussed at an online meeting of the group starting at 12:30 GMT — would see OPEC+ begin to unwind a second tranche of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd by eight members more than a year ahead of schedule, after fully unwinding the first tranche since April.
Iraq's OPEC delegate Mohammed al Najjar told reporters the group will likely agree to raise output from October by 130,000–140,000 bpd. Two sources familiar with the talks said the group had reached an agreement in principle to raise output by at least 135,000 bpd.
This would allow the group to unwind the 1.65 million bpd cut over a year, retaining the option to accelerate, pause, or reverse hikes at future meetings. At their last meeting in August, OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, raised production by 547,000 bpd for September.
Brent crude futures closed at $65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2% due to a weak US jobs report and expectations of an OPEC+ output hike, though still up from a 2025 low near $58 in April.
Most OPEC+ members are pumping near capacity, so only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are able to add more barrels to the market, analysts said. OPEC+ still maintains two layers of cuts: 1.65 million bpd by eight members and another 2 million bpd by the whole group until the end of 2026. — Reuters
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