Could we imagine a Middle East without Iran — not merely without its current government, but stripped of its strategic presence, historical depth and deterrent capacity? And who would fill such a void? This question invites a cascade of potential chaos were Israel (or the West supporting it) to emerge victorious in the ongoing conflict with Iran. The reality is that Arab states cannot escape their responsibility for what follows if Israel achieves its aims. Regret by then would be too late, meaningless in a region fully dominated and unquestioningly obedient to Israel.
The heart of the matter isn’t Israel’s military might — it has Western backing and near-global silence bordering on complicity — but whether the Middle East could survive the consequences of an Israeli victory. The answer is unambiguous: it cannot. Such a defeat would usher in the greatest danger the Arab world has faced in recent times.
Arab perceptions of Iran have long been flawed, often narrowed to sectarian tropes. Yet Iran — both under the Shah and after 1979 — is an ancient civilisation, a state with deep historical roots, a regional vision and jurisdictional sway that cannot simply be erased. The 1979 revolution was not just a religious export — it was a profound internal upheaval, rooted in political, social and economic transformation. Arab states would have done better to engage Iran as a regional partner rather than heed Western calls to isolate and dismantle it.
Many policymakers in the Middle East have persisted in the belief that a weakened Iran would bring stability. This notion, fuelled by Western think‑tanks, treats the revolution as an ideological aberration and fails to grasp that dismantling Iran would leave a tremendous geopolitical vacuum. It risks turning Gulf states into mere satellites of a new regime — and could even fracture the Arab world, repeating patterns seen after Baghdad fell in 2003.
Israel isn’t just aiming to disarm Iran; its Western backers envision full dominance — military, ideological and economic. This would enable Israel to reshape regional dynamics to serve its own long-held interests. In this scenario, normalisation agreements become superficial at best. Israel would define the cultural and geopolitical order. Those who resist would find themselves in the grip of widespread chaos.
Alarmingly, current Middle East dynamics could perfectly set this scenario in motion. It is among the darkest moments in Arab history — marked by disunity, ideological extremism and a lack of political coherence.
A victorious Israel would also have global consequences. It would convey that diplomacy is obsolete and that military dominance is the only arbiter of power. What may appear as a strategic void — an emerging Israeli hegemony — would instead become a regional vacuum filled by Israeli influence across security, economics and technology.
Such dominance cannot yield lasting stability. History shows that it breeds violent resistance — from Lebanon to Gaza to Iraq. The collapse of central authority could ignite decentralised extremist movements, unleashing violence that cannot be contained. This would be worsened by a profound sense of injustice as Iran is punished for its support of Gaza and Palestine.
Preventing an Israeli win is not about endorsing Iran’s military ambitions but about preserving regional diversity. The Middle East has always balanced on a knife-edge; allowing one power to dominate entirely would undermine that balance. Arab and Gulf states must deploy all their influence to block an Israeli victory — publicly and privately — and forge new regional equations based on partnership, deterrence and dialogue instead of military supremacy.
Otherwise, the Arab world will deeply regret dismantling Iran, just as it has regretted Iraq’s downfall — and this time, the consequences could be far more catastrophic.
At this historic crossroads, the region needs clear-sighted leadership, wisdom and balanced thinking to maintain equilibrium and stability. Allowing Israel to win this war would imperil the Middle East’s collective identity, culture and security.
Translated by Badr al Dhafri. The original version of this article was published in Oman Arabic newspaper on June 23.
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