Europe’s shift from the US to China

Europe is currently tackling a period of profound geopolitical turbulence, largely driven by the deterioration of transatlantic relations. The anxiety within European capitals is palpable, with some analysts warning that a US withdrawal from Europe would be as destabilising as a nuclear strike by Russia.

The root of this concern lies in Washington’s evolving stance: rather than abandoning its hegemony over Europe, the US is seeking to offload the financial burdens associated with maintaining it. Since World War II, the United States has constructed a global order in which Europe plays a central role - militarily, economically and politically.

However, sustaining this hegemony has become increasingly costly for Washington. Mounting debt, declining global influence and domestic pressures have led the US to adopt a more transactional approach to diplomacy.

This shift - epitomised by the 'America First' agenda - has fundamentally altered the nature of US-European relations, reducing them to a series of cost-benefit calculations. Europe, long accustomed to the security and economic advantages of American patronage, now finds itself being asked to shoulder more of the burden.

This recalibration of US foreign policy is particularly evident in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The renowned American economist Jeffrey Sachs recently described the war as a 'proxy conflict' fuelled by Washington’s hegemonic ambitions. His remarks, delivered at the European Parliament, underscored a growing realisation within Europe: the transatlantic alliance is no longer defined by shared values but by financial and strategic interests. While Nato leaders continue to insist that the alliance has 'never been more united', the reality tells a different story. European leaders are increasingly questioning whether their long-term security interests are best served by unwavering alignment with Washington’s agenda.

The most striking aspect of this debate is Europe’s evolving perception of China. Traditionally, European foreign policy has been framed through the lens of Western unity, with Washington dictating the terms. However, as the US disengages from its historical role as Europe’s ultimate guarantor, Beijing is emerging as a potential strategic partner.

At this year’s Munich Security Conference, discussions revolved around the future of European leadership. Some advocated for a stronger German role, others lamented Britain’s exit from the EU, but one of the more provocative questions was whether China could replace the US as Europe’s primary strategic partner. The shifting landscape of global power dynamics has made this question more pertinent than ever.

Under Trump 2.0, the US has adopted an increasingly unpredictable approach to foreign policy. Trump’s disdain for traditional alliances, his overtures to Vladimir Putin, and his demands for European nations to fall in line with American priorities have unsettled European policymakers. This uncertainty stands in stark contrast to Beijing’s consistent and calculated approach to global affairs.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking in Munich, reinforced China’s commitment to multilateralism and global stability. His message was clear: while Washington embraces chaos, Beijing offers continuity. Where Trump sows discord, China is offering stability. Where the US sees alliances as transactional, China presents itself as a cooperative partner. This calculated strategy has not gone unnoticed in European capitals.

For years, Europe’s approach to China has been dictated by Washington’s geopolitical priorities. However, as the transatlantic rift widens, European leaders are reassessing their stance. While concerns remain over China’s alignment with Russia, there is a growing recognition that engagement with Beijing is not just an option but a necessity. China has been quick to seize this opportunity.

Beijing has signalled its willingness to collaborate with Europe on multiple fronts, from trade and infrastructure to security and diplomacy. Wang’s remarks about integrating China’s Belt and Road Initiative with the EU’s Global Gateway Strategy were not mere rhetoric; they were a direct invitation to a Europe that increasingly finds itself adrift.

The reality is that Europe faces a strategic dilemma. It does not seek to sever ties with Washington, but it can no longer afford to remain a passive player in a world reshaped by America’s unilateral decisions. Trump’s recent trade policies, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and technology, have demonstrated how vulnerable Europe is to shifts in US policy.

As Washington moves to restrict Chinese economic influence, European businesses and policymakers are caught in the crossfire. There are, of course, limits to how closely Europe can align itself with China. Beijing’s strategic partnership with Moscow remains a sticking point, and ideological differences persist. However, the days of unquestioned European alignment with Washington are over. The future of European strategic autonomy will depend on its ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its historical ties with the US against the opportunities presented by a rising China.

As Europe reassesses its place in the world, it must recognise that true autonomy cannot be granted by Washington, nor can it be outsourced to Beijing. Instead, it must be forged through independent decision-making that prioritises Europe’s own interests.

In an era of great power competition, the continent must redefine its foreign relations - not as a subsidiary of American policy, but as an entity capable of charting its own course in an increasingly multipolar world.