Reflection on geo-strategic dominance...

Trade wars have existed for centuries. They are the art of diplomacy, leaving the bomb in the hands of their adversaries. In a trade war, any dispute or negotiation reflects political conditions at home. Trade conflicts and disputes have been documented since the pre-modern era. The 21st century has the longest list. In each period, the villain is ‘the other’ side that undermines national interests. This narrative has been a constant. In several cases, trade wars escalated into full-fledged state confrontations. Recently, immigration, drugs, capital flows and technology transfer have triggered trade negotiations, a contemporary aspect of international relations. Previously, there were trade conflicts over opium, bananas and chickens, as well as cotton, beef hormones, genetically modified food and other issues. Trade wars are barriers that take various forms, such as tariffs, import quotas, domestic subsidies, currency devaluation and embargoes. Tariffs are the most widely used trade protectionist policy. They are used to gaining better trading terms at the expense of their partners. The problem is that higher product costs are passed on to consumers. According to previous reports, tariffs raise prices, reduce available quantities of products and services and lead to reduced employment and lower economic output. The President of the United States, Donald Trump’s current inter-country trade adventures point to an attempt for technological and geo-strategic dominance, masked by undocumented immigrants entering the United States and fentanyl and other substances flowing into the country. Trump threatens hefty tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the highest tax hike since 1993. Threats are usually followed by negotiations. When governments impose unilateral trade or tariff measures, their partners retaliate. All sides recognise their losses. It is a bargaining process. The outcome of trade talks and trade wars reflects political pressure from specific parties. It is a component of the political interactions between government, voters and interest groups. Lobbyists who run campaigns and make contributions to an incumbent government seek to influence policies; it is not unreasonable to view this as procuring protection. Tariff wars typically begin when a country’s leadership is unhappy with a trading partner’s actions or for other geopolitical reasons. The United States Tariff Act of 1930, known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, was created to protect farmers and businesses against international competitors. The Act increased duties on imports into the United States by 20 per cent. Over 25 countries retaliated by raising their tariffs on American products. Analysts suggest that Trump has remained consistent on tariffs and made the same trade arguments for over 40 years. Throughout his first term (2017-2021), Trump often threatened to impose high tariffs, only to back down after receiving concessions from trading partners. In 2019, Trump pledged to impose a 5 per cent tariff on all Mexican imports — and gradually raise it to 25 per cent — if Mexico failed to curb the number of undocumented immigrants entering the United States. In 2017, Trump reportedly threatened to withdraw from the US-Korean trade deal “any minute” if concessions were not made. China's economic growth has been viewed as a challenge to American economic and geopolitical dominance. During his two presidential campaigns, 2016 and 2024, Trump promised to reduce the United States’ trade deficit with China. He also mentioned unfair trade practices like intellectual property theft. During his 2024 campaign, he proposed a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese products. Experts claim that at times, Trump has tried to make his intentions appear more severe than they were to gain negotiation leverage. He has often suggested that he is more interested in large economic and imperial ambitions. It seems his inner circle isn’t interested in vetoing his impulses. The claws of the hawks are ready to snatch. In today’s global context, it is critical to closely monitor America's main adversaries, including China, Russia and Iran, given their growing alignment.