Chessboard has long served as a powerful metaphor in major political and foreign policy works to describe the intricate and strategic manoeuvring of states and actors in the international arena.
Most notably, Zbigniew Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard articulated geopolitics as a high-stakes game where global powers vie for influence, dominance and survival. Similarly, Henry Kissinger, in World Order (2014), emphasised the delicate balance required in the international system, likening diplomacy to a chess game where every move has long-term consequences.
However, as Anne-Marie Slaughter argues in The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World (2017), the classical chessboard metaphor now coexists with a more complex, interconnected web of global relations. Slaughter highlights that modern geopolitics involves not only linear state-to-state strategies but also dynamic, multilateral networks where actors influence one another in nontraditional ways.
In the context of Syria, this metaphor is particularly apt, as the country has become a key piece on the geopolitical chessboard and within the broader web of international networks. Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the US, alongside non-state actors, navigate alliances, rivalries and shifting dynamics, each seeking to advance their strategic interests amidst the chaos. Syria epitomises the complexities of this grand game, where every move reverberates beyond the immediate players, affecting not only the region but the global balance of power. Balancing the traditional chessboard strategies with the realities of an interconnected world underscores the high-stakes nature of Syria's evolving geopolitical landscape, where no move is without risk or opportunity.
The recent overthrow of President Bashar al Assad's regime marks a pivotal shift in Syria's political landscape, ending over five decades of Assad family rule. This development has profound implications for regional dynamics, the Syrian populace, and the nation's cultural heritage and economic future.
The Syrian civil war has precipitated one of the most severe humanitarian crises in recent history. Over 60 per cent of the pre-war population, approximately 13.7 million people, have been displaced, creating the world's largest refugee crisis. The recent political upheaval exacerbates the plight of Syrians, both domestically and abroad, as uncertainty hampers efforts towards stability and reconstruction, and as host countries are already planning to send Syrian refugees back into that uncertainty once again.
The protracted conflict has devastated Syria's economy, contracting it by over 60% since 2010. The Syrian pound has plummeted, leading to hyperinflation and widespread poverty, with 69 per cent of the population living below the poverty line as of 2022. The recent regime change introduces both opportunities and challenges for economic revitalisation.
From a world heritage perspective, Syria's rich cultural heritage has suffered extensive damage throughout the conflict. Historic cities like Aleppo have experienced significant destruction, with ancient structures reduced to rubble. The ongoing instability poses further risks to these irreplaceable cultural assets, threatening the nation's historical identity and the potential for cultural tourism, which is vital for economic recovery.
The Syrian political upheaval has brought a complex web of stakeholders to the forefront, each pursuing strategic interests and seeking to benefit from the ongoing instability turning some into winners and others into losers.
Most notable winners include Türkiye and Israel which may secure control over their borders with Syria. Conversely, the most notable losers include Iran, which lost its strategic ally in Damascus, undermining its regional ambitions, and Russia which faces challenges in maintaining its military and geopolitical foothold. Syria’s civilians remain the ultimate victims, bearing the brunt of violence, displacement and instability.
Türkiye seeks to prevent the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region and to repatriate some of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees it currently hosts. A weakened Syria may offer Ankara opportunities to extend its influence in northern regions while mitigating Kurdish ambitions.
The US benefits from the destabilisation of Iranian proxies but faces challenges in engaging with the new power dynamics. Its role in managing the humanitarian fallout and supporting reconstruction will likely shape its influence.
The Syrian regime’s fall represents a major blow to Iran’s regional ambitions, particularly its corridor of influence stretching from Tehran to Beirut. However, Iran may attempt to retain influence through militias and indirect channels, ensuring its foothold is not entirely lost.
Russia’s primary interest lies in maintaining its naval base at Tartus and leveraging Syria as a geopolitical bargaining chip. The regime’s collapse complicates these aims, but Moscow may pivot to supporting new power brokers to secure its strategic interests.
Syria’s future is as uncertain as it is pivotal. Its transformation offers a chance for renewal but is fraught with challenges. The international community must step up, not just as spectators to a high-stakes geopolitical game but as active participants in fostering inclusive governance, preserving cultural heritage and rebuilding Syria’s shattered economy. The focus must remain on the Syrian people, whose resilience in the face of adversity demands a global response rooted in empathy and action.
The metaphor of the chessboard remains potent, but Syria’s story reminds us that this game is not played in isolation. Every move on the board impacts lives, cultures and futures far beyond the immediate players. Syria’s transformation will shape not only the Middle East but also the broader contours of global stability. The stakes are immense, and the costs of failure would echo across generations. As the pieces shift and the game evolves, one truth remains clear: the future of Syria is not just a regional concern — it is a global imperative.
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