The latest coup episode in Niger, unfurled on July 26, marks the seventh convulsion of its kind across West Africa in a span of three years.
However, the repercussions of this domestic upheaval have rippled beyond the region, casting deep shadows over Western interests. The backdrop of the current episode reveals protracted tensions between Niger's President, Mohamed Bazoum, and the coup conductor Abdourahamane “Omar” Tchiani - both frontline players in Mahamadou Issoufou's presidential regime from 2011 to 2021.
Bazoum's plan to replace General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of the presidential guard, seems to have set things in motion. The following day, instead of supporting him, the military rallied behind the emerging junta, aiming to prevent a potentially lethal showdown among different factions that could escalate into a catastrophic conflict.
Niger's recent coup adds to the cascade of upheavals sweeping the Sahelian belt since the Sudanese Armed Forces ousted Omar al Bashir in 2019. Niger's strategic importance is amplified by its abundant natural resources. The country boasts valuable reserves of gold, silver, coal, tin, and notably, uranium. This radioactive element, particularly, garners attention. Renowned for its premium uranium ores, Niger contributed around 5 per cent of worldwide mining output in 2022, producing 2,020 metric tonnes.
Niger is the EU's second-largest ore supplier. Niger's geopolitical significance fuels two key trends in the escalating crisis. First, it could evolve into a broader West African conflict, even deemed 'Africa's world war.' Second, Niger's Sahel location holds pivotal relevance, not just for regional extremism but also within a continent now a global hotspot for terrorism and religious extremism. Bazoum's gambit to defuse the Tchiani threat included plans to remove him and slash the presidential guard's budget.
Simultaneously, Bazoum boosted overall military spending, aiming to counter Niger's pressing terrorism challenges and to garner military support elsewhere. But despite this move, the military aligned with the coup plotters. Echoing a familiar West African junta playbook, the putschists justified their action, planning to prosecute Bazoum for treason.
Many countries including France, the United States, and regional bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU), exhibited stern responses towards the coup's orchestrators. France and ECOWAS explicitly called for the prompt release of Bazoum and a swift return to constitutional norms, cautioning against potential military intervention. The coup's underpinnings reveal a complex interplay of domestic and international factors, adding to the intricate tapestry of this unfolding drama.
Only Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, and Benin committed troops for a Nigeria-led anti-junta endeavor. But, on the other hand, Nigeria's Senate withheld authorisation for deploying its own forces. Meanwhile, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea - all junta-led ECOWAS members - rallied behind Niger's junta, even vowing to treat any action against it as a war on themselves. However, in a face-saving effort, ECOWAS slapped tough economic sanctions on Niger.
Amidst this, France and the EU halted economic aid, totaling $554 million. France also paused military operations. In response, the Biden administration also decried Niger's power seizure, threatened US aid withdrawal if constitutional order was not reinstated, and demanded Bazoum's immediate release.
Navigating the riddle of Western priorities in Niger – reconciling democratic values, security, and strategic concerns – grows ever more intricate. Despite the looming specter of severe humanitarian and economic fallout, the junta is unlikely to yield to sanctions in the near future. In a conceivable twist, Niger's junta could forge a deeper tie with Wagner mercenaries, providing lasting support amid potential military action. This has gained relevance as ECOWAS' August 6th deadline for Bazoum's return lapsed without compliance.
The current landscape is synonymous with instability, revealing the junta's struggle to firmly secure control. A range of pathways could are possible. The Nigerien junta might navigate intricate internal talks with civilian figures, possibly involving former President Mahamadou Issoufou or Bazoum's rivals. Deliberations could easily stall, with the junta manipulating local politicians to stave off relinquishing power, reminiscent of Sudan's convoluted political dynamics.
The second option is the establishment of a collaborative transition government could materialise, uniting the junta with a civilian leader other than Bazoum, such as Issoufou.
Promising upcoming elections, the government might later prolong its rule when the voting timeline nears, mirroring the strategies seen in Mali, Chad, and Sudan. And, as a third scenario, the junta could opt for a straightforward approach, pledging elections within a year without forming an interim civilian coalition.
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