After a shortfall in production last year, India's 2023 wheat production is likely to rise 4.1 per cent to a record 112.2 million tonnes. India's agriculture ministry released its Second Advance Estimates for 2022-23 crop production, which includes targets and estimates for the winter or 'rabi' crop.
According to the report, there will be record-sized crop production during the current crop year (July 2022-June 2023), although the forecast volume is well below the target set earlier.
The food grain production forecast, as per the Second Advance Estimates, is at 323.6 million metric tonnes (mmt), down from its target of 328 mmt, although 2.5 per cent or 8 mmt higher than its estimate for 2022-23. This forecast includes record-sized crops forecast for rice, wheat, corn, barley, pulse crops and oilseeds in addition to other crops.
India is the world's second-biggest producer of grain, at the same time, the world's second-biggest consumer of wheat. Higher wheat output is likely to help the country replenish depleted inventories and bring down prices.
The indication, however, is that the ban on ban on wheat exports from the country will continue despite the expected rise in output to bring down domestic prices, government sources said last week.
India banned exports in May 2022 after a sharp, sudden rise in temperatures clipped output, even as exports picked up to meet the global shortfall triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
One of the reasons behind the export ban was a fall in wheat output in 2022. According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, wheat output fell to 107.74 million tonnes in 2022 from 109.59 million tonnes in 2021.
According to government sources, the production of wheat harvested in March is expected at record 110-111 million tonnes in 2023-24 on the back of higher acreage if the weather remains favourable throughout the season. "Weather Inputs from the India Meteorological Department is an important consideration," a government official said.
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