Resurgent demand: With leading exporters increasingly constrained in their ability to boost supplies, the Sultanate of Oman now finds itself in an unrivalled position to dominate the Asian, South/East African and GCC markets
Gypsum shipments from the Sultanate of Oman, currently the world’s biggest exporter of the industrial mineral, are projected to grow exponentially over the next decade as consumption rebounds in key markets, while traditional exporters curtail outflows of the commodity to meet domestic demand.
Exports of Omani gypsum – a key raw material for the cement and gypsum board manufacturing industries – amounted to 8.74 million tons in 2021. The principal market was India, lifting around 3.10 million MT from the Sultanate of Oman, followed by Bangladesh (1.40 million MT), Vietnam (1.34 million MT), Japan (0.70 million MT), Indonesia (0.64 million MT), South/East Africa (0.60 million MT), and the remaining 0.96 million going to the Gulf states, Philippines, South Korea and Sri Lanka.
But with demand growing significantly in many of these key markets, importers will increasingly pivot to the Sultanate of Oman for their gypsum requirements in the face of slumping supplies from longstanding exporting nations, according to a key industry executive.
Ramachandran, Director – Zawawi Gypsum, a key exporter of Omani gypsum, envisions a dramatic ramp-up in exports from the Sultanate of Oman to satisfy rising demand growth in Asian, South/East African and GCC markets.
“Gypsum imports by countries in these regions are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of over 5.70 per cent over the 2022 – 2031 timeframe, cumulatively totaling over 270 million MT. This compares with imports totaling around 162.79 million MT from 2010 to 2019 when the same region witnessed a CAGR in gypsum imports of 10.22 per cent. At this current moment in time, no other gypsum producing country in the region has the resources, capacity and appetite to this demand growth as the Sultanate of Oman,” he stated.
According to the industry professional, the Sultanate of Oman’s share of exports to the three afore-mentioned regions has grown significantly over the past 12 years. From 2010 to 2019, Oman’s shipped a total of 45.57 million MT, representing 28 per cent of the total. However, Thailand – long the Asia’s dominant supplier – exported 79.27 million MT (48.71 per cent). Exports from Iran accounted for 27.24 million MT (16.74 per cent), which primarily went to the west coast of India, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain.
However, over the 2020-2021 timeframe, the dynamics have dramatically changed in favour of the Sultanate of Oman, which has since emerged as the largest exporter with 44.40 per cent of total exports (17.54 million MT). Thailand slipped to second position with a 30.18 per cent share (11.92 million MT), followed by Iran 23.08 per cent (9.12 million MT).
With exporting heavyweights Thailand and Iran increasingly constrained in their ability to boost supplies, the Sultanate of Oman now finds itself in an unrivalled position to dominate the regional export market (Asian, South/East African and GCC), says Ramachandran.
“Going forward, importing countries will be increasingly looking to the Sultanate of Oman to meet their gypsum requirements. At the current rate of growth in exports, Oman’s share is projected to rise to around 48 - 50 per cent of demand, which equates to over 130 million MT over the 2022- 2031 timeframe.”
Thailand has placed curbs on the volumes of locally mined gypsum that can be exported – a move designed to support its domestic gypsum industries. Iran has seen exports decline sharply in recent years over concerns the country faces a supply crunch.
Boding well for Omani gypsum exports is robust demand growth in India, one of the largest importers globally. India’s dependence on imports is projected to rise significantly as local supplies are squeezed. Moreover, supplies of Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) gypsum – a byproduct of coal-fired power generation – are shrinking due to high capital costs.
In 2021 alone, India imported 5.26 million MT of gypsum, representing around 30 per cent of its total gypsum consumption – a share that is anticipated to rise to over 50 per cent in the coming years, says Ramachandran.
Given this upbeat outlook for Omani gypsum exports, the Sultanate of Oman should leverage this advantageous position to ensure better returns for the local industry and national economy, the executive stresses.
“These market projections open up enormous opportunity for Omani gypsum exports,” he explains. “The Sultanate of Oman is emerging as the single most important source for natural gypsum with almost no rivals across the Asian, GCC and South/East African regions. The tightening demand-supply scenario will be reflected in an upward trend in Omani gypsum export volumes and FOB prices. This dominant position will also give Oman big leverage to control the aforementioned regional gypsum market and FOB prices in the region – actions that will help maximize non-oil GDP from minerals and also export revenue growth,” he added.
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