Why Europe worries about a politically wounded Trump

President Donald Trump may be politically damaged by the midterms, but he remains an immensely powerful and unpredictable actor who has legacy on his mind.
In the wake of a stunning electoral defeat for his Republican Party, European governments have largely refrained from any official glee, recognising that they must retain good relationships with Trump.
They do not know if a lame duck Trump will become an angry one. But they understand, officials and analysts said, that the new Congress will have only limited constraints on Trump’s foreign policy. And they believe he wants to leave his mark not just on Washington, but on foreign affairs, where he has broad freedom of action.
In the short run, they expect him to push as best he can to resolve the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and keep the pressure on Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence. They also assume that Trump will continue to focus on the Western Hemisphere, especially Venezuela and Cuba.
Looking ahead, European allies will want to reach out to the new members of Congress to better understand a changing United States and to try to convince a new generation of politicians and business leaders that the trans-Atlantic relationship is adaptable and vital to America’s long-term interests.
“Europeans need to try to keep the Trump administration engaged in Europe, so we don’t want to add insult to injury” by lauding his defeat, said Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Washington and chair of the Munich Security Conference. “Let the Americans celebrate. If we celebrate an opposition win, we’re not doing our jobs.”
At the same time, he said, it is a time for Europeans to increase their engagement across the United States. “There is a small chance that American decision-makers might develop a new interest in Europe, not as an unnecessary burden but as an interesting and important ally.”
In the past two years, Trump has badly strained the trans-Atlantic relationship by questioning the utility of Nato, threatening to seize Greenland from a Nato ally and reducing US support for Ukraine as it battles a Russian invasion.
The longer-term hope is for a more productive relationship after a new president is elected in 2028. There is general acknowledgement that there is no return to the warm ties of the Biden years regardless of who wins, said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. For Europeans, the lesson should be clear, he said — “double-down on our ability to defend ourselves without relying on the US, rather than slowing down what until now is only a half-hearted effort to stand on our own feet militarily.”
The most immediate concerns are about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and about what Trump will decide about the presence and location of US forces in Europe.
Trump’s outreach to President Vladimir Putin, offering Russians business deals, high-level meetings and an end to diplomatic isolation, contradicts and undermines the European effort to increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia to stop the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials are anxious that Trump will try to use the period between now and the sitting of the new Congress in January for further efforts to mollify Putin, including another summit meeting in Florida, two senior European officials said.
“For Europe, the greatest danger comes from Trump’s erratic policy toward Russia and Ukraine,” said Daniela Schwarzer, president of the Hertie School and a professor of European governance and geopolitics. “The risk of an even closer alignment between Washington and Moscow remains as Trump is now weakened.”
US efforts will continue next week with a scheduled trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, among US, Russian and Ukrainian envoys to discuss steps toward a peace treaty and future security assurances that “might include all of Europe,” Trump said.
European officials will be there to 'support Ukraine but are unlikely to be in the room. And they are not optimistic that Putin is open to serious negotiations now, the officials said, while he is pounding Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure before a bitter winter.
If Trump sees the Ukraine war as a legacy project, so does Putin.
The officials believe that Putin will wait to see what happens in the United States, but also for the result of the French presidential election in the spring, where Marine Le Pen, the far-right politician who wants to end French financial support for Ukraine, remains the front-runner. Putin also sees cracks in Poland and in Germany, where the government is widely unpopular and the main opposition party, the Alternative for Germany, opposes aid to Ukraine.
At the same time, Trump continues to sell American weaponry to Europeans to pass on to Ukraine and to provide vital intelligence about incoming Russian missiles and troop deployments. Even if he decides to pull some US troops out of their traditional bases in Germany, the Europeans would not be unhappy if more were then sent to front-line states like Poland.
On Iran, Trump appears to want to negotiate instead of escalating a war that has proved so unpopular with American voters, officials and analysts believe. He has so far rejected pleas to do so from Benjamin Netanyahu, the caretaker Israeli prime minister after inconclusive elections.
— New York Times