Omani population slows as live births decline 22.7%

MUSCAT, NOV 7
The number of live births has dropped from 81,868 in 2016 to 63,252 in 2025, a decrease of 22.7 per cent, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI).
The decline is reflected in the crude birth rate (CBR) for Omanis which reached 20.8 births per 1,000 people in 2025, compared to 33.7 in 2016. The total number of live Omani births in 2025 decreased by approximately 0.1 per cent compared to the previous year.
The Ministry of Education projected that the number of new first-grade students in public and private schools for the 2027/2028 academic year would exceed 80,000. However, data shows that the number of first-grade students in 2016 was 63,369 rising to 64,946 in 2017 and registering 85,441 in 2022. The figure then began to gradually decline in subsequent years, reaching 83,182 in 2025.
The data shows the overall population growth rate in the Sultanate of Oman declined from 5.9 per cent to 1.7 per cent over the recent years with a decrease in the rate of natural increase to 12.09 per cent from 18.16 per cent.
The annual growth rate of the Omani population also decreased from 3.5 per cent in 2016 (with a rate of natural increase of 30.67 per cent) to an annualised rate of 1.8 per cent in 2025 (with a rate of natural increase of 18.41 per cent).
The overall fertility rate for Omani women aged 15 to 49 remained stable at 2.8 births per woman in 2025, unchanged from the previous year, while the total number of live births to mothers aged 40 to 44 increased by 11 per cent.
Dr Waad Ali, Assistant Professor of Demography in the Department of Geography at Sultan Qaboos University(SQU), said that one of the most significant changes among Omanis is the continued decline in fertility and the resulting decrease in the number of births. The total fertility rate (TFR), which indicates the average number of children a woman is expected to have if current fertility patterns continue, has fallen from approximately 4 children per woman in 2015 to 2.8 children in 2025.
He pointed out that the number of births still exceeds the number of deaths among the Omani population therefore the population continues to grow. However, with the decline in fertility, the gap between births and deaths could narrow. In simpler terms, the population is still growing, but at a slower pace.
According to the bulletin issued by the Ministry of Health, the number of births in 2025 reached 62,233 Omani births, according to reports received from all institutions, compared to 80,471 Omani births in 2015 and 61,068 Omani births in 2010.
The data shows that the overall marriage rate dropped from 7.0 in 2016 to 5.7 in 2020. The marriage rate recorded 3.8 in 2023 and reached 5.7 in 2025. However, divorce rate remained stable over the past ten years ranging between 1.0 and 1.2.
The total number of marriage and divorce certificates issued by notary public offices reached 23,117 in 2025, a 29.2 per cent increase compared to 17,896 in 2024 and 14,716 certificates in 2023.
KEY POINTS
1. The total number of live births in Oman dropped by 22.7% over a decade, declining from 81,868 in 2016 to 63,252 in 2025.
2. The total fertility rate (TFR) for Omani women dropped from approximately 4 children per woman in 2015 to 2.8 children in 2025
3. Overall population growth rate fell sharply from 5.9% to 1.7%, while the natural increase rate dropped from 30.67% in 2016 to 18.41% in 2025
4. First-grade student numbers peaked at 85,441 in 2022 before dropping to 83,182 in 2025, challenging projections of over 80,000 new students for the 2027-2028
5. While overall birth numbers decreased, total live births among Omani mothers aged 40 to 44 increased by 11% in 2025.
6. The marriage rate dropped from 7.0 in 2016 to 3.8 in 2023, before rebounding to 5.7 in 2025. Meanwhile, the divorce rate remained stable between 1.0 and 1.2