Oman braces for warmer winter, above-average rainfall

MUSCAT: Oman is expected to experience above-average rainfall across several regions during November 2026 to January 2027, while temperatures are forecast to remain higher than seasonal averages across the Sultanate, according to the latest seasonal weather outlook issued by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

The forecast, released in November by the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre, indicates that rainfall patterns will vary across the country over the next three months, with northern Oman particularly likely to experience wetter-than-usual conditions.

The authority's seasonal bulletin provides an early indication of expected rainfall and temperature trends for November and December 2026 and January 2027.

According to the CAA, rainfall during November is expected to exceed the climatic average across most parts of Oman, except for southern regions where precipitation is likely to remain closer to normal seasonal levels.

The forecast maps indicate widespread areas of above-average rainfall potential, particularly across northern and central parts of the country.

Temperatures during November are also expected to remain above the climatic average throughout Oman, indicating that warmer-than-usual conditions could continue despite the gradual transition towards winter.

The seasonal outlook suggests that rainfall during December will remain above average across northern Oman, while most other parts of the country are expected to experience precipitation around normal seasonal levels.

The forecast reflects geographical differences in rainfall distribution, with northern areas continuing to show greater potential for wetter conditions than southern and central regions.

Temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to remain higher than the climatic average across the Sultanate during December.

For January 2027, the CAA forecasts above-average rainfall across northern Oman, excluding the southern coastal areas of the country, where rainfall is expected to remain around normal levels.

The outlook also indicates the likelihood of above-average precipitation along parts of the southern coast, suggesting that rainfall patterns could differ between coastal and inland regions.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above the climatic average across Oman in January, suggesting that the warmer-than-usual seasonal pattern could extend into the beginning of 2027.

The latest outlook comes amid expectations of a strengthening El Niño climate pattern, which could influence weather conditions across Oman during the coming months.

In an earlier report, the National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre indicated that El Niño could reach its peak during November and December 2026, potentially affecting rainfall distribution, temperatures and the likelihood of extreme weather events.

Historical analysis covering 1980 to 2025 showed that El Niño periods have been associated with higher rainfall averages in Oman, particularly during the winter and spring months. However, regional and global weather systems also play important roles in determining actual conditions.