Global travel demand slows as Middle East carriers see 7.5% drop

Muscat: The fallout on the regional aviation sector continues as the Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.5% year-on-year decrease in demand while capacity fell 3.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 78.3% (-3.6 ppt compared to September 2025), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA.).

Traffic on the Middle East–Asia corridor fell by 8.8%, a deeper contraction than the 7.9% decline recorded in August. By contrast, the 3% fall on the Middle East–North America corridor was a slightly smaller decline than last month

However, Middle Eastern carriers saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in September, the weakest of all regions. Capacity increased by 7% year-on-year.

The air travel in the Middle East have been facing disruptions due to attacks on some airports and closure of abrupt airspaces.

At the same time, total air travel demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 0.5% in September 2026, compared to the previous year during the same period.

Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.3%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 0.2% year-on-year.

International demand grew 0.4% compared to September 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 1.7%. Capacity was up 0.5% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.6% (-0.1 percentage point decrease compared to September 2025).

“Air traffic demand fell 0.5% in September, reflecting weaknesses in the Middle East and North America. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from August, with a welcome return to growth in most international markets. These patterns have more-or-less repeated themselves throughout much of the year, and we can expect this to continue amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled seat capacity is expected to remain above 2025 levels in October and November, but the rates of growth remain weak and highly unbalanced between regions,” said Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability, and Chief Economist.

Cargo

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 7.7% compared to September 2025 (+8.6% for international operations).

Middle East-linked corridors remained under pressure, with traffic declining on both Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia routes.

“Air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September, with growth across all regions. Stronger global trade and manufacturing provided a supportive backdrop, while AI-related shipments helped drive another month of double-digit growth across the Pacific. The challenge is cost. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled compared with a year ago, and yields have not kept pace. There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging,” said Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist.