Business

Oman crude up by $12; global diesel prices at record high

 

The price of Oman crude increased by $11.99 to $116.53 for November delivery at the close of Monday's trading.
The average monthly price for October was $87.84.
Brent crude futures hit their highest in six weeks, nearing $99 a barrel, after Yemen's Ansar Allah attacked energy facilities and cities in Saudi Arabia, highlighting the risk of the conflict spreading throughout the region and further complicating the supply of fuel to world markets. 
The price of diesel has hit record highs and has almost doubled from where it was before the ⁠start of the conflict, as has gasoline, and even prices for physical crude for immediate delivery are well above futures prices, in ⁠a clear indication of the toll the conflict is taking on the global energy market.

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude price forecasts on Sunday, expecting shipping disruptions in the Middle East to persist into next year.

The team, led by Daan Struyven, lifted its Brent/WTI forecasts by $5 to $85/80 per barrel for December 2026 and to $80/75 for 2027. Markets, the strategists said, are increasingly pricing in a prolonged conflict: 
Brent spot futures have climbed to $97, while the options-implied probability of Brent topping $100 in March 2027 has jumped to about 25%, from roughly 6% a month ago.

Despite the new assumption, Goldman called its price upgrade modest, for two reasons. OECD commercial oil inventories, a key price driver, have 'barely drawn since the war began,' reflecting a smaller-than-expected deficit and a concentration of stock draws in strategic reserves, on-water storage and China.

Goldman also assumes Middle East supply adaptation continues, with production gradually recovering by the second half of 2027 as pipelines come online.