OPEC+ loses oil sway as China gains ground

LONDON: The world's most powerful oil alliance, OPEC+, finds itself in an unfamiliar position: unable to influence a market it once helped shape.
The war, which has shut a major export route for Middle Eastern oil and damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries, has eroded the group's market share and, with it, its ability to affect prices. Its statements and policy decisions barely move oil markets anymore.
Instead, cuts in Chinese crude imports have emerged as one of the dominant themes of 2026, helping to balance oil markets amid what analysts describe as the worst-ever supply disruption.
OPEC+ — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia — accounted for about 40% of global oil output in July, according to Reuters calculations based on International Energy Agency data.
That's down from more than 48% before the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, although about four to five percentage ⁠points of the decline were due to the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC in May.
OPEC+'s core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, accounted for only a quarter of world oil output in July.
Crude output from the core OPEC+ subgroup fell up to 10 million bpd below required levels in April, limiting the alliance's ability to raise supply and influence oil markets. The war has reduced OPEC+'s ability to quickly raise or cut supply by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz, a key export route for top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia and other members such as Iraq and Kuwait.
OPEC's share of global crude output peaked at about 50 per cent during the oil crises of the 1970s before falling to 30 per cent by the mid-1980s as output from the North Sea, Alaska and Siberia increased.
OPEC did not reply to a request for comment. OPEC+ says its decisions are aimed at supporting market stability and it does not target a specific oil price.
Wartime supply disruptions are not new for OPEC, from Kuwait during the 1990-91 Gulf War ⁠to Iraq following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. What is unusual now is the scale of the outage, which is constraining multiple producers simultaneously, reducing the group's ability to offset losses elsewhere. — Reuters