Situations that rarely make headlines

The glass ceilings are crumbling. There is no fanfare to mask the sound of destruction. It all falls from within. Five months of constructive dialogue, aggressive politeness, and diplomatic waffle about valued partnership.
The region’s cohesion has long been fragile. There are facets of brotherhood and unity and, as in any clan, members who transgress, disagree or dispute.
The disagreements span decades of territorial disputes, control of maritime chokepoints, ideological divides, foreign alliances, and security architecture.
Since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran in February and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this vital maritime route has become a focal point in a narrative that has shifted many times, resembling an opera buffa in its complexity, yet carrying serious implications.
The various narratives included ending Iran’s nuclear programme, degrading its missile capabilities, stopping Tehran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
The overlapping aspects of this war can be viewed from diverse angles, geographical perspectives, or intellectual frameworks, yet its political, economic, and security implications remain ongoing.
The Strait of Hormuz has long been a point of tension. Disputes over the control of this narrow waterway have led to historical standoffs.
A long-standing cultural dispute also exists concerning the name of the waterway.
The escalating war with Iran and Tehran’s retaliation against neighbouring countries have significantly disrupted energy infrastructure and global oil and gas supplies, intensified inflationary pressures, and increased financial volatility.
Oscillating tensions and security concerns are prompting regional governments to reassess their priorities and boost their defence. Government budgets deteriorate as spending shifts. Imports and exports may contract, resulting in a widening of the trade deficit. Heightened uncertainty can trigger capital outflows, impact sectors such as tourism and retail, and potentially lead to a decline in foreign investment.
These are snapshots of a developing geopolitical moment. The true cost of this ‘game of egos’ is measured not only in dollars but also in hardships faced by populations around the globe, the weaponisation of the cost of living, and the resulting collateral damage.
To quote the aphorism of Thucydides, ‘...the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.’
The conflict has so far resulted in thousands of human casualties. Retaliatory strikes and falling debris have caused dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries across neighbouring Gulf nations. The United States military has registered at least 16 service member deaths and over 400 wounded. Official Iranian figures report over 3,400 people killed and over 26,500 injured.
While still navigating diplomatic manoeuvres and maintaining a discourse of calm at home, a deeper, longstanding divide looms among the countries in the region. Any strategy to accommodate ongoing problems is fading. We are facing a rupture in international rules.
The US-Israel-Iran war is reshaping the global scenario. We are already seeing significant shifts in trade patterns and power rivalries.
In addition, a leadership vacuum serves as a catalyst for further conflict. Regional instabilities are often invisible as Gulf states try to protect their status as safe places for business and global travel.
The observation points to alarming structural issues in geopolitics. The house of cards built on fragile foundations may collapse because of internal flaws exacerbated by external factors. The current situation is driven by a dangerous standoff between the main players.
Viewing the conflict as a tale of heroes and villains strips away any romanticised political narratives, revealing the harsh reality that ordinary people should not bear the burden of manufactured wars.
Concealed political and security instability often looks solid until it breaks.

Sonia Ambrosio The writer is a journalist, academic and researcher in media studies