Aviation fuel prices surge 17.6% post-war escalation

With the resumption of the conflict between the United States and Iran and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, jet fuel prices also surged in the past week, according to the Jet Fuel Price Monitor.

This is in line with the increase in global crude prices.

The global average aviation fuel price last week (ending July 17) rose 17.6% compared to the week before to $149.40/bbl.

Brent futures rose $1.79, or 2.0%, to settle at $91.01 a barrel, which was the highest close for Brent since June 10.

The biggest changes in aviation fuel prices were seen in Asia and Oceania (20.7%), the Middle East (20.9%), Europe and CIS (16.5%), North America (16.6%), and Africa (16.8%).

On a year-to-year basis, jet fuel prices have surged by 65.9% since 2025.

At the end of the week ending June 19, the jet fuel prices were $119.17 per barrel, 116,63 at the week ending June 26, $119.13 at the week ending July 3, and $127.06 at the week ending July 10.

It may be noted that the Middle Eastern carriers saw a 28.8% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 24.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 76.1% (-4.8 compared to May 2025).

The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but month-to-month, the impact is lessening, and the rate of decline was almost half that of April.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), as stated in June, “War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines to the worse. Globally, airlines are expected to see profitability halve compared to 2025. Profits will shrink from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion this year. And margins will shrink from 4.2% to 2.0%. All airline bottom lines are suffering from the rapid 70% rise in jet fuel prices.