Research develops quake preparation plan for Oman

MUSCAT: A research project conducted by principal investigator Dr Abdullah Ansari at the Earthquake Monitoring Center, Sultan Qaboos University, has developed an advanced framework to enhance earthquake preparedness and support safer urban planning in the Sultanate of Oman. The project, titled 'Multicriteria Risk Assessment Framework for Enhancing Earthquake Preparedness for Urban Environment (M-RAFEEQ)', provides a comprehensive approach to assessing earthquake risk in urban environments.
According to Dr Ansari, the project introduces a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria seismic risk assessment framework that integrates seismic, geotechnical, structural, environmental, and socio-economic parameters to evaluate earthquake risk in urban environments. Using Al Seeb as a case study, the framework combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with GIS spatial modelling to produce high-resolution seismic microzonation maps, comprehensive risk indices, and economic loss estimates, including Average Annual Loss (AAL), Loss Exceedance Curves (LEC), and Probable Maximum Loss (PML).
The research aims to develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for urban seismic risk, generate detailed microzonation maps for Al Seeb, quantify potential economic losses, support evidence-based urban planning and resilience strategies, and contribute to the goals of Oman Vision 2040 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11 on sustainable cities and communities.

Dr Ansari adds that the study revealed significant variations in earthquake risk across Al Seeb. High-risk zones were identified in Al Hail North, Old Al Khoudh, and several industrial areas, where weaker structural conditions, liquefaction-prone soils, and high urban density increase vulnerability. In contrast, areas such as Muscat Hills and Al Mouj demonstrated relatively lower risk due to stronger construction standards and more stable geotechnical conditions.
The findings also showed that geotechnical and structural characteristics are the most influential factors affecting earthquake vulnerability, while the proximity of hazardous facilities, including fuel stations and industrial zones, further increases risk. The project successfully classified the study area into five seismic risk categories, ranging from very low to very high, enabling authorities to identify priority areas for mitigation and preparedness. Economic analyses further highlighted the potential financial consequences of future earthquakes, emphasising the importance of proactive risk reduction measures.
Based on these findings, DrAnsari recommends prioritising the retrofitting of buildings in high-risk areas, incorporating seismic microzonation maps into urban planning and development decisions, strengthening compliance with the Oman Seismic Code (OSC 2013), expanding geotechnical investigations before new construction projects, improving accessibility to hospitals and emergency response facilities, regulating the location of industrial and fuel infrastructure to reduce secondary hazards, and promoting community awareness and resilience initiatives.
The research findings have been published in three leading international peer-reviewed journals, Scientific Reports, Natural Hazards Review (American Society of Civil Engineers), and Modelling Earth Systems and Environment. The project brought together Dr Abdullah Ansari, Dr Issa El Hussain, Dr Ahmed Deif, Dr Adel M E Mohamed, Prof Khalifa al Jabri, and Yousuf al Shijbi from Sultan Qaboos University, alongside international collaborators from South Korea, Norway, and Japan. Research assistants also contributed to data collection, analysis, and GIS-based mapping.