Oil falls to lowest since after ceasefire deal signed

LONDON: Oil ​prices fell almost 3 per cent on Thursday to their lowest since the first trading day of the Iran war, as a US-Iran interim deal to end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease sanctions on Tehran boosted the global supply outlook.
Brent crude futures were down $1.53, or 1.9%, at $78.02 a barrel at 1326 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate ​fell $2.22, or 2.9%, to $74.57 a barrel.
Brent sank to its lowest since March 2, which was the first ​day of trading after the initial US-Israeli strikes on Iran, while WTI was at ⁠its lowest since March 4.
'The selloff extended as energy markets continued to aggressively price in a faster-than-expected return ​of Iranian barrels following the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding,' IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
T​hree Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a deal with Iran to end the war that has disrupted global energy supplies.
The 14-point ​memorandum begins a 60-day negotiation period during which Iran will allow toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas shipping lane. The deal calls for traffic through the strait to be restored to its full capacity within 30 days.
The ​preliminary accord defers many of the more difficult issues, such as Iran's nuclear programme, and also requires the US ​and its partners to come up with a $300 billion plan to finance Iran's recovery.
Analysts expect a gradual recovery in flows through ‌the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, while industry experts have cautioned that prices may not plummet as demand recovers and inventories are refilled.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to normalise to pre-war levels by end-July, with crude production recovering by October.
The bank estimates that a normalisation in exports to pre-war levels might be achieved with a 13 million barrel-per-day increase in ​Hormuz flows from current levels ​to around 70 per cent of ⁠pre-war levels.
BNP Paribas does not currently anticipate a return to pre-war prices and views $75 per barrel as a 'durable floor for the foreseeable future,' it said in a note, ​given ongoing supply losses and higher demand. Brent traded around $60 to $70 per barrel in the ​first two ⁠months of the year before the Iran war.
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million metric tons in 2026, down 4.9% from 2025 amid a pivot to new energy and high oil prices, according to a report ⁠published ​by PetroChina's research unit.
Ukrainian drones hit the Russian capital's oil refinery for ​the second time this week in what Kyiv cast as a demonstration of its growing capabilities.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement sent global oil prices tumbling more than 9 per cent this week alone, and technical ​analysis indicates they could slide further - though the path ‌may be bumpy from here.
Think of a support level like ​a floor; it's a price point where buyers have historically stepped in to stop further declines. When that floor breaks, it signals that sellers are ​firmly in control.
From a technical standpoint, the 10-week moving average - ​which smooths out price fluctuations over the past ten weeks - sits at $97.02 and ‌is ⁠acting as a ceiling, keeping any recovery in check. The 100-week moving average at $74.78 marks the next likely downside target if selling pressure continues.
That said, a rally back above the 10-week moving ​average would signal ​that the ⁠sell-off has run its course and revive the chances of a recovery. — Reuters