The question Oman has been asking for 40 years

A newspaper archive can sometimes tell us more about the future than the past.
Recently, I came across a report published more than four decades ago discussing Omanisation in the banking sector. The debate at the time centred on whether banks could raise the share of Omani employees from around 45 per cent to 60 per cent.
At first glance, it looked like a story from another era.
It was not.
What struck me was not the percentage being discussed. It was the nature of the discussion itself.
The report spoke about skills shortages. It questioned whether educational institutions were producing graduates with the capabilities employers required. It called for stronger training programmes and greater cooperation between the private sector and educational institutions.
Forty years later, we are still having the same conversation.
The difference is that banking is no longer the issue.
Today, the discussion revolves around artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing, digital finance, semiconductors and other industries that are expected to shape the next phase of global economic growth.
The sectors have changed.
The question has not.
Can the education system produce the skills the economy needs? This may well be the most important economic question facing Oman as it advances towards Vision 2040.
Economic diversification is often measured through investment announcements, industrial projects and growth indicators. These are important measures of progress. They demonstrate momentum and help attract international confidence.
Yet every successful economic transformation ultimately depends on something more fundamental.
People.
No investment strategy can succeed if the skills required to sustain it do not exist locally.
No technology transfer programme can achieve its full value if local talent is unable to absorb and expand upon that knowledge.
And no country can build a competitive knowledge economy without first building a competitive knowledge workforce.
This is precisely why the banking sector’s experience remains relevant today.
The sector did not become one of Oman’s most successful examples of workforce localisation through regulation alone. It required decades of investment in education, training and professional development. It required cooperation between government, employers and educational institutions. Above all, it required a recognition that developing local talent was not simply a labour policy objective. It was an economic necessity.
That lesson deserves renewed attention.
Oman is entering a period in which human capital may become more important than physical capital.

Artificial intelligence is transforming industries at a speed few anticipated. Automation is redefining the workplace. New professions are emerging faster than many education systems can adapt. Competitive advantage increasingly depends on knowledge, innovation and specialised expertise.
In such an environment, the greatest risk is not unemployment.
It is irrelevance.
A country may attract substantial investment yet capture only a fraction of its long-term value if the necessary skills remain imported rather than developed domestically.
Conversely, countries that invest successfully in human capital often create economic opportunities that far exceed the value of their natural resources.
This is why the next chapter of Oman’s economic story will depend not only on the industries it attracts but also on the capabilities it develops.
The countries that thrive in the coming decades will not necessarily be those with the largest populations or the deepest financial resources. They will be those that can convert knowledge into skills, skills into innovation and innovation into prosperity.
The old newspaper report reminded me of something important.
Forty years ago, Oman was debating how to prepare its citizens for the banking sector.
Today, it is debating how to prepare them for the industries of the future.
Different sectors.
Different technologies.
The same question.
And perhaps the same answer.
The future will belong not to the countries that build the most projects, but to the countries that build the people capable of leading them.