The ocean century, the Indian Ocean opportunity

For most of human history, oceans were seen as barriers. Today, they are increasingly understood as connectors, enablers and strategic assets. They regulate the climate, sustain biodiversity, support food security, facilitate trade and provide livelihoods for billions. According to UNCTAD, the sustainable ocean economy contributes trillions of dollars to global economic activity, while the oceans themselves cover more than 70 per cent of the Earth’s surface.
Yet the significance of oceans extends beyond economics. They are becoming the organising geography of a changing world.
The recent World Ocean Day webinar, organised jointly by the National Institute of Maritime Affairs of Pakistan and the Research Centre Indian Ocean at the German University of Technology in Oman, brought together policymakers, researchers, maritime specialists and heritage practitioners, the event highlighted a simple but profound reality: the future resilience of many societies will depend as much on their relationship with the ocean as on developments on land. The Indian Ocean emerged not merely as a maritime space, but as an ecological, economic, cultural and strategic system whose future will shape the fortunes of billions.
The Indian Ocean is arguably the oldest continuously navigated body of water in human history. Long before the rise of modern nation-states, long before the Atlantic became the centre of global commerce, the Indian Ocean connected East Africa, Arabia, India, Southeast Asia and China through predictable monsoon winds and sophisticated maritime knowledge. Goods moved across its waters, but so did ideas, religions, technologies, languages and people.
In many respects, the Indian Ocean was the world’s first truly international economic system. This holds true today, too.
The Indian Ocean carries nearly one-third of global container traffic and a substantial proportion of global energy trade. It links some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, hosts critical maritime chokepoints, and sits at the intersection of Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Few regions possess such a combination of geography, demographics, resources and strategic relevance.
Yet the true promise of the Indian Ocean lies not in what passes through it, but in what can be built around it.
The countries of the Indian Ocean Rim collectively possess enormous natural and human capital. They are endowed with energy resources, fisheries, agricultural capacity, strategic minerals, renewable energy potential, manufacturing hubs, financial centres, entrepreneurial talent and some of the world’s youngest populations. Together, they possess many of the ingredients required to become one of the principal centres of gravity of the twenty-first century.
The challenge is not one of resources. It is one of imagination, coordination and institutional ambition. This is where the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) acquires renewed significance.
Too often, IORA is viewed primarily as a diplomatic forum. That perception understates both its origins and its potential. The organisation was conceived as a platform through which Indian Ocean countries could cooperate economically, socially and culturally while leveraging their shared maritime geography for mutual prosperity and stability.
In many ways, IORA was ahead of its time. The world that exists today—marked by supply-chain realignment, economic fragmentation and growing uncertainty—is precisely the kind of environment for which IORA was originally designed.
The association should therefore be revitalised not as another international organisation issuing declarations, but as a practical platform for economic integration, maritime connectivity, blue economy development, scientific cooperation, cultural exchange, food security and sustainable development.
This is entirely consistent with the concept of open regionalism recognised within the multilateral trading system and supported by the WTO. Regional cooperation need not imply exclusion. Properly designed, it can strengthen global trade, resilience and connectivity while remaining open to partnerships beyond the region.
Rather than becoming a geopolitical counterweight to the West, the Indian Ocean can serve as a bridge linking major centres of growth across the Global South while maintaining productive engagement with Europe, North America and the wider international economy. A revitalised IORA would therefore complement, rather than displace, emerging institutions and partnerships, such as BRICS.
For Oman, this conversation carries particular resonance.
Oman is not merely a state overlooking the Indian Ocean. Historically, it was one of the founding members of IORA and a great ocean-crossing civilisation of the region. The Indian Ocean is therefore not an abstract geopolitical concept for Oman. It is part of the country’s historical memory and strategic identity.
This heritage also explains why Oman was among the key supporters and anchors of the vision that eventually became IORA. Long before many others recognised the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean as a coherent region, Oman understood that shared geography could become a platform for shared prosperity. That insight remains as relevant today as it was then.
Indeed, Oman may be uniquely positioned to help catalyse a new phase in IORA’s evolution. Its geography places it at the crossroads of major maritime routes. Its foreign policy emphasises dialogue, partnership and bridge-building. Its relationships extend naturally across Africa, the Gulf, South Asia and Southeast Asia. Few countries possess such a natural alignment with the association’s founding objectives.
The opportunity before IORA is therefore larger than trade alone. It is the opportunity to rediscover the Indian Ocean as a civilisational space, an economic ecosystem and a community of shared interests. It is the opportunity to transform a maritime region into a platform for innovation, resilience and sustainable development. And it is the opportunity for its member states to define their futures on their own terms—drawing confidence from their resources, capabilities and histories rather than through narratives that continue to portray much of the Global South as perpetually dependent or subordinate.
In an increasingly uncertain world, perhaps the most forward-looking idea is also one of the oldest. That the countries of the Indian Ocean, working together through a revitalised and ambitious IORA, can once again transform a shared geography into a shared future.
The ocean connected us before. It may yet do so again.